| Facing with the increasingly serious water crisis,the state attaches more importance to the role of the system in solving the water crisis.The Number One Document promulgated by Central Government in 2001 definitely put forward the implementation of the strictest managerial system of water resources,in which the quantity control system of gross water consumption is one of the important measures of scientific management of water resources in China.However,the current gross water control objectives usually are annual mean targets or particular averages during a certain planning period,and there is a natural contradiction between its static and the fluidity,spatiotemporal variability and uncertainty of hydrological elements.Reservoir scheduling,as an effective way to change the natural uneven distributive property in time and space of water resources,is the key to carry out the quantity control system of gross water consumption and can play a role in the realization of the rational allocation of water resources.Aiming at how to put the total water volume control system at the dispatching level into practice,the following research is done in this dissertation:(1)Study on the time distribution model of gross water control objectives.On the basis of the research and practice of gross water consumption control and reservoir scheduling,the relationship between the precipitation of water supply area and reasonable water consumption is established by analyzing the characteristics of water use in different water industry,then the annual allocation model of total water consumption control objectives based on the "rational water consumption curve" is proposed.The model is compared with the distribution rule of "increase when wet and decrease when dry in the same proportion"(IWDD).The annual gross water comsumption control objectives obtained by the model are further decomposed to the month according to the annual water demand distribution process during the year.The model is applied to the water supply area of Wang Ying reservoir,and the total water consumption control plan at different frequencies is solved,which provides a support for the implementation of he strictest managerial system of water resources.(2)Research on the reservoir operation model under the ontrol of gross water consumption.A reservoir scheduling framework under the control of total water consumption.is proposed.The model is mainly composed of runoff prediction module,the gross water control objectives time distribution module,annual water scheduling plan formulation module and short-term two time scheduling decision module.The total water consumption control is realized by the model running way of "macro total control,long and short nesting,real-time decision making and rolling update".The annual water scheduling planning module and two time scheduling decision module are respectively solved by particle swarm optimization(PSO)and KKT(Karush-Kuhn-Tucker)condition method.The model is applied to the water dispatching of Wang Ying reservoir.It is proved that the control system of gross water consumption can be implemented in the long series of scheduling,and the water supply process is more stable,the agricultural water supply guarantee rate is higher and the reservoir benefit can be more played under the "reasonable water curve" allocation method compared with the distribution rule of IWDD.(3)Study on risk in the implementation of total water consumption control system.The possible risk and main risk factors in the scheduling realization of gross water control are analyzed.The risk definition and calculation model caused by the prediction error is given.Wang Ying reservoir and its water supply area is taken as an example to analyze the influence of prediction error on risk by Monte Carlo risk analysis method.The example shows that the reservoir scheduling based on the "rational water use curve"allocation method can overcome the unfavorable influence of the runoff forecast error to some extent. |
PDF Full Text Request