Studies On Distribution Network Reliability Avaluation Method

For power system users,the distribution reliability is one of the most basic and key requirements.Distribution network is a part of connection to the user side,and the standing is the most important.Gradually,with the development of economic and commercial engineering and the progress of the times,the reliability of distribution network is becoming more and more strict.In some of the traditional algorithms that we know,such as Fault mode and effect analysis(FMEA)?Minimal path method and Monte Carlo method,these algorithms have many or less shortcomings such as too much computation or inaccurate calculation of the sample.On the basis of traditional algorithms,introduction the Bayes' theorem,using the probability and statistics to solve the problems of distribution network reliability evaluation.It can not only work out the index of the reliability evaluation more accurately,but also can clearly reflect the defects of the distribution network.It can develop perfect planning and improvement measures for defects,it also have great significance to improve the existing algorithm and to improve the research level of the reliability evaluation of distribution network.This paper mainly introduces the evaluation method of distribution network reliability evaluation index system and several traditional appraisal procedure,such as Fault mode and effect analysis(FMEA)?Minimal path method and Monte Carlo method.After the advantages and disadvantages of several methods are analyzed,Bayes' theorem is introduced into the reliability assessment.Study on the distribution network reliability analysis based on the Bayes' theorem,with RBTS bus test system of no.2 typical models.Set up a new algorithm for distribution network reliability evaluation algorithm based on Bayes' theorem.By using examples,we write program to explain the reliability calculation process of distribution network,and verify the feasibility and advancement of Bayes' theorem.After working out the results,the influence of line length and transformer fault on the reliability of distribution network is discussed.Collecting basic data of distribution network of Pingdingshan in Henan.Combined with the actual situation,we can work out the reliability data ofPingdingshan distribution network,when we contrastive analysis,we can find the reliability gap of Pingdingshan distribution network,and put forward the planning measures for improving the reliability of distribution network.