Research On Operated Metro Passenger Flow Prediction And Emergency Evacuation Technology

Metro has a lot of advantages,such as shortcut,punctuality,comfort,environmental protection,large-capacity and so on,so it becomes more and more people's first choice and makes an important contribution to people's livelihood improvement.In general,metro lies in semi-closed space,for example,underground or under the viaduct.So it has many characteristic such as elusive facilities,closed environment,limited emergency exit,intensive personnel and equipment.Emergency or large events will lead to evacuation and rescue difficult situation.If disposal is undeserved,it will cause heavy losses not only to personal and property,but also to social economy and life.Therefore,it is very important to predict and hold the passenger flow change rules in effect at the time of the incident and pedestrian trajectory scientific and accurate.It has a great significance to improve the ability of emergency evacuation,ensure that the urban metro operation ability can match the passenger demand,and prevent and respond to the emergencies.According to the relevant national safety evacuation standards and norms and a large number of literature review,this thesis mainly to carry out the following work:Firstly,the characteristics of the Grey Theory are that need less original data,modelling simply,deal with fuzzy factor accurately.The characteristics of the SVM model are that smaller samples,nonlinear,high precision,strong generalization ability.Combine those characteristics to build GM-SVM forecasting model.Secondly,according to some Metro Line 15 research,compared the advantages and disadvantages,the error analysis of the GM(1,1),SVM,and GM-SVM model proves that GM-SVM forecasting model has small error,high precision and better prediction effect.Meanwhile,the result shows that more training data contains more information,so it can improve the prediction accuracy within limits.Thirdly,refer to the existing research literature,apply the two-dimensional cellular technique to build the subway emergency passenger evacuation model.It can be used to deal with defect model when simulate high density environment evacuation in the past.Finally,according to national safety evacuation standard and some actual subway station,draw the normal subway evacuation simulation diagram.Under the condition of different outlet width,make regression analysis for the speed-density of the traffic.At the same time,discretize time slice,update the grade of the traffic speed,it shows that the influence of the exit width on passenger flow velocity and density.The simulation analysis could be used to provide technical reference to design safe exit width reasonably and effectively improve safety in public places.