Research On Disaster District Emergency Evacuation Network Design Based On Capacity Reliability

Recently,various emergencies accident disasters on domestic or abroad,social security incidents occur frequently,resulting in huge casualties and property losses.When these disasters happen,we must evacuated from the disater area urgently.The primary objective is to protect the public as much as possible,in order to transfer more or all of the public to safe locations in as short a time as possible.A proper design of the evacuation network will play a crucial role.In this paper,the demand characteristics of emergency evacuation are analyzed,and the four stage model is used to predict the traffic demand under emergency evacuation.The prediction result is the basis of evacuation network design.The damaged and travelers on the evacuation time requirements of the conditions of the network disaster based on the established path travel time prediction model,and gives the equilibrium path travel time reliability,the paper further studies the algorithm to solve the model and carry out a case analysis.Based on the analysis of traveler's route choice behavior,a bilevel programmingmodel for emergency evacuation network design considering network capacity reliability is constructed.Among them,the upper layer planning has the minimum total impedance under the constraint of certain capacity reliability and limited rescue resources,and the lower level planning is a traffic assignment model based on travel time budget.In this paper,a bilevel programming model solving method based on genetic algorithm(GA)is proposed.A simple network is used to analyze the model,and the validity of the model and examples is verified.The research results of this paper have certain practical value for the recovery strategy formulation and the evacuation design of the disaster area network.