The Trip Generation And Distribution Forecast Method Of Various Traffic Modes In Small Cities

Some of the main traffic characteristics of small cities,for example,the traffic volume with the surrounding virtual traffic zones accounts for a large proportion of the total traffic volume,and the resident travel characteristics vary greatly with the changing size of the built-up area,and so on,were less analyzed and processed in the traffic planning theoretical research and practical work,therefore the traffic planning theory for small cities has a great space to be improved at present.In order to improve the accuracy of traffic demand prediction results and ensure the quality of traffic planning in small cities in China,according to the traffic characteristics of small cities,this paper puts forward a method suited for the trip generation and distribution forecast of various traffic modes in small cities,which can be used as a beneficial supplement of classic traffic demand forecasting method.First of all,combined with the traffic characteristics of small cities,this paper systematically analyzes and summarizes the contents and methods of traffic survey,the main contents and the commonly used forecasting methods in the first three stages of the "four stages" method of classic traffic demand forecast.Then,in view of the relatively large proportion of trips in small cities about virtual traffic zones,which has a relatively large impact on the internal traffic of small cities,this paper puts forward a method suited for the trip generation forecast of various traffic modes in small cities.The emphasis is given to analyze the relationship between the traffic volume in small cities about virtual traffic zones and the population,and the forecast method of trip generation of various traffic modes in small cities about virtual traffic zones is put forward,and the corresponding prediction model is established.Finally,in view of small city residents travel varing greatly with the changing size of the built-up area,this paper puts forward a method suited for the trip distribution forecast of various traffic modes in small cities.The emphasis is given to analyze the relationship between the gravity model parameters of various traffic mode in planning zones and the scale of the built-up area,and the forecast method of trip distribution of various traffic modes in planning zones of small cities is put forward,and the corresponding prediction model is established.