Research On Human Factors And Warning Methods Of Ship Navigation Risk Based On Reason-SHEL

With the rapid development of society and technology,the reliability of ship equipment has made great progress,the water traffic accidents caused by the failure of the ship equipment is extremely rare,human error has become a troublesome attribution of the water traffic accidents.According to the International Maritime Organization statistics,maritime accidents caused by human factors take up more than 80 percent of the total accidents amount.It has become the most significant issue for ship operating enterprises to deal with the research of the human induced mechanism,the precautions against human errors,the reduction of human risk,and the realization of ship navigation risk of human induced mechanism and early-warning management.It’s also an important issue to ensure the healthy and rapid development of water transportation and the development of the national economy.According to the above requirements,this thesis proposed an analysis of the human factors in ship navigation risk based on the Reason-SHEL model,and the method of multidimensional association rules mining is used to analyze the human factors cause chain.The main research work of this thesis is as follows:(1)This thesis proposed a perfect human factors index system for the study of the human induced mechanism of ship navigation risk.Firstly,this thesis uses Reason model and SHEL model to analyze the human factors in ship navigation risk,and combines the two models to establish Reason-SHEL model.Then,the perfect human factors index system of ship navigation risk is constructed based on the Reason-SHEL model.(2)This thesis designed the multidimensional association rules algorithm and constructed the ship navigation risk early warning rule base.The thesis uses the Reason model combined with the classic association rules algorithm to design multidimensional association rules algorithm,and the constructed human factor index system is used to analyze the causes of the accidents to establish the database of the ship accidents.The thesis designed multidimensional association rules algorithm is used to mine the ship accidents database,and then the ship navigation risk early warning rule base is constructed.The similarity algorithm is used to verify the reliability of the rule base.(3)This thesis proposed a ship navigation risk early warning optimization strategy combined with early-warning rule base and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.This thesis monitors and collects the data of the human factors index system of ship navigation risk,and uses the similarity algorithm to calculate the similarity of the human factors of ship navigation and the early-warning rule base,so we can get the potential factors of ship navigation risk.Then,we use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the ship navigation risk,and get the ship navigation risk level.Finally we combine the potential risk factors with risk level to establish a comprehensive risk control scheme of ship navigation.(4)The human induced mechanism and early warning of ship navigation risk system has been designed and implemented through the application of ASP.NET MVC technology.Then the validity of the system function and the usability of the system are clarified by a series of tests.These results will realize new scientific management methods of the ship safety navigation,which can eliminate the potential accidents and reduce the incidence rate of maritime accidents.The research results of this thesis have important theoretical and practical significance.