Research On Scheduling Optimization Of Bus System Based On Predictable Large Passenger Flow

The rapid development of public transport has eased urban traffic congestion,at the same time,the increase in public transport demand has caused challenges to existing bus operations and bus system capacity.The increase in commuting distance and the frequency of entertainments has caused more serious bus traffic problems.Among them,the issue of large passenger flow is particularly prominent.In order to solve the problem,this paper took the predictable large passenger flow as the research object,and studied the scheduling optimization on bus system.On the basis of summarizing the definition and classification of large passenger flow,this paper used the average waiting time of passengers as an indicator to identify potential large passenger flow and predict the size of large passenger flow,and determined a large passenger flow forecasting method based on bus IC card data through analyzing related characteristics of predictable large passenger flow,which used passenger flow and OD demand of aggregation process to predict passenger flow and OD demand of evacuation process.In order to effectively solve the problem of predictable large passenger flow in the bus system,the paper selected the scheduling optimization of shuttle line,and operated it in coordination with the original bus line,to expand the capacity of bus lines and reduce the impact of large passenger flow on the bus system.The process of optimization specifically was to place the problem of predictable large passenger flow in the entire bus line network,and divided scheduling optimization into optimization of single-line scheduling without consideration of transfer and optimization of network in consideration of transfer.All models mentioned in the paper aimed at maximizing social welfare,designed stopping station of shuttle line,optimized the schedule of shuttle line,and considered the impact of different modes of shuttle line to scheduling optimization model.According to the model structure and variables,the Lingo11 solver was selected to solve multiple models established in the optimization process,and the system resilience was introduced to evaluate results of the model solution,and to judge the positive effect of resilience while using shuttle line to solve large passenger flow.In order to verify the effectiveness on the scheduling optimization of shuttle line,the paper took the surrounding area of the National Stadium as the research background,selected a concert at the National Stadium to solve the problem of predictable large passenger flow at the bus station,and analyzed the demand of the network in the surrounding area.Through inputting parameters into the model,solving the model and evaluating the model,it was found that after optimization,theresilience of each bus line in the area was increased by more than 20%.Sensitivity analysis of parameters in the model revealed that the number of additional vehicles on the line and the demand of the station have a direct impact on the results of the model's solution.The two-way unified operation of shuttle line has certain advantages over the independent operation of the line in two directions.The optimization of shuttle line can play a certain role in maintaining the stability of bus system under different passenger scales and different restrictions,and can effectively solve the problem of predictable large passenger flow.