Research On Risk Analysis Model Of Interenational Turbine Project

As a country-owned large-size equipment manufacturing company,Harbin Electric Machinery Co.,Ltd.(HEC)was founded in 1951,as a former Soviet Union aided company in the early days of China’s birth.So all the technical specifications and management modes were completely derived from the former Soviet Union’s industrial standards.Since the reform and opening,HEC has followed the times steps tight and made great progress in our management system,and ushering in a golden period of rapid growth of hydroelectric generators.However,since 2010 due to over-exploitation of hydroelectric generators,within a short period of time,the drastic shrinkage of the hydroelectric generators market has forced the company to open up more to the overseas markets.Due to the lack of experience in the project implementation of foreign hydroelectric generators project by HEC,and the complexity of the risks of foreign hydroelectric generators projects and the lack of risk management in the project management,that caused the poor risk analysis and management of the projects during the implementation,it was just the opposite of foreign project the situation which is high risk and high rate of great harm.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to carry out risk analysis and management of foreign hydroelectric generators projects during the implementation phase.According to the situation of HEC,identify the high-rated risk of Panama Project which signed in 2009 by using the methods of risk identification,such as Delphi method,brainstorming method and risk checklist method.The risk identified above are analyzed using appropriate quantitative risk analysis methods,such as decision tree analysis,sensitivity analysis,network analysis,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,etc.,in order to get quantifiable charts,formulas or tables.Based on the above quantified charts,formulas or tables,we discuss the measures what HEC should do when facing different risk levels to reduce the impact of project risks on the Company.After the risk identification and qualitative and quantitative analysis of the Panama project,this paper draws a conclusion that the project risk can be quantified and analyzed,hope to guide the risk management of hydroelectric generators project abroad in the future.