Research On Risk Management Of Water Conservancy Information Project Based On Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

With the increasing attention of the central and local governments at all levels of water conservancy informatization,facing the historical opportunities for the rapid development of water conservancy informatization,there are also great risks.All stages of the project construction process,factors that increase the uncertainty of the project,at the same time,the risk management awareness is not strong,the understanding and research of the project risk is not enough,not overall,the project risk assessment and decision-making is not scientific,the methods and means of project risk response and control is not effective.At present,a scientific and effective project risk management mechanism has not yet been formed.There is not much practice in risk management methodology of water conservancy information project,and it is not enough to support project risk management decisions.Therefore,how to guide the theory through scientific risk management method,qualitative and quantitative analysis of water conservancy project risk,the major events occurred before the risk aversion,risk probability and risk loss to the lowest degree,has the practical value and significance of the larger.Based on the comprehensive analysis of domestic and international research on the risk management of water conservancy information project as the research object,using fuzzy AHP model,fuzzy AHP establish project risk assessment of water conservancy information theory method mathematical model based on key risk factors of water conservancy information project,risk assessment methods the project is a combination of qualitative and quantitative,specific strategies to develop the project key risk factors as a whole,in order to improve the ability of water conservancy project to deal with sudden risk shock.Mainly from the following three aspects:(1)Based on the research of project risk factor evaluation,according to the characteristics and structure of water conservancy information project,we describe the key internal and external risk factors that affect project construction,and clarify the causal relationship between various factors of water conservancy information project.Based on the basic idea and structure of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process information projects,and classify and proce(AHP),we identify and analyze the key risk factors for water conservancyss the key risk factors.(2)According to the different importance degree of each index,different weight values are given according to the different evaluation objects in the water conservancy information project.According to the established project risk factor analytic hierarchy process(AHP)structure model,by comparing the both of project risk factors,we quantitatively compare the importance degree of one factor with another factor,and construct fuzzy judgement matrix of all levels of factors.On the basis of complementarity of fuzzy judgment matrix,additive index of compatibility is established,through the study of compatibility and consistency between the judgment matrix of fuzzy judgment matrix,is proposed to achieve satisfactory compatibility criteria of fuzzy complementary judgment matrix consistency test,to determine the weights of the key values of risk factors can be used as a management decision on the basis of.(3)Based on compatibility of fuzzy judgment matrix,the comprehensive risk probability,risk loss degree of consideration,through the evaluation of the key risk factors of comprehensive importance,the establishment of vector importance sorting of risk factors under different standards,provide support for decision makers to select the optimal decision scheme.According to the different degree of risk level,the corresponding risk coping strategies are formulated,and the important risk factors of the project are mainly controlled and prevented.The research results of this thesis can enrich the risk management system of water conservancy information project,and provide a new and simple and convenient method for risk assessment of water conservancy information project,and also provide some reference for water conservancy information project risk response strategy selection.