| As an important indicator shows the trend of price changes in construction projects,construction cost index(CCI)is widely used in construction valuation and settlement,.With acceleration of integration of global capital and labor resources,speed of international construction market integration has accelerated significantly.The promotion of "The Belt and Road" further accelerates the free flow of element in construction market over the region,improves the efficiency of resources reset,and push the deep mix of construction market."The Belt and Road" provides unlimited possibilities for the construction enterprises to do business overseas.While construction enterprises are attempting to venture overseas,it is necessary to fully understand the pattern of global CCIs to avoid cost or investment risks and make profit.With economic globalization and trade liberalization sweeping the global,the international construction market synchronization trend is more obvious.However,there is still limited knowledge about interaction between the macroeconomic and construction cost,which affect the understanding and application of CCI.Therefore,it is necessary to study the fluctuation coordination between different CCIs,and understand their synergistic structure and causes from the global perspective.Based on the interaction mechanism between macro-economy and engineering economy,this paper sets out the theoretical basis for discussing the volatility synergistic effect on CCI and its' causes by combing regional economic theory and price fluctuation.Then,it further analyzes how macroeconomic interacts with CCI.After that,22 representative countries are selected as samples and Cointegration test and covariance anlysis,as well as correlation anlysis are applied to verify the synergistic relationship between CCIs from different country.Then,Kruskal's minimum spanning tree is applied to discuss the volatility synergies of CCI.To fully understand the volatility synergistic effect on different country,space distance used in Kruskal's minimum spanning tree is calculated by euclidean metric and similar trend separately.Results shows that 22 countries are divided into different groups,which prove the fluctuation characteristics of CCI from certain countries are similar and have a long-term and stable relationship.Combined with the specific situation of the different countries,it is found that the volatility synergies of CCI is generally connected to geographical location,trade,inflation and employment rate.To further reveal the quantitative relationship between CCI and macroeconomic variables,and explore the reason why CCIs are synergistic.Six macroeconomic indicators are set as explanatory variables,including: gross domestic product(GDP),consumer price index(CPI),interest rate(IR),exchange rate(ER),unemployment rate(UR)and total volume of import trade(IM),to establish panel data model in this paper.It demonstrates that GDP,CPI,IR,UR and IM have a significant influence on CCI,and it is also concluded that GDP and CPI are important factors to the synergistic of CCI worldwide.Finally,in combination with the economic background of different countries,this paper discuss the influence of different macroeconomic variables have on CCI and its activation path.This paper studies the development pattern of CCI from a global perspective,which will subserve further researches on table and balanced development mechanism of global constuction market,identification of the fluctuation causes of construction cost,development pattern of global and Chinese construction industry.However,due to the limitation of data and time,there are also some limitations in this study.Futether study should continue to expand the research samples and its interval,further improve factors system of CCI,and develop a new model to reflect fluctuation mechanism of global CCIs. |
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