Study On The Fluctuation Of Freight Capacity Of The Bohai Rim Port Group And The Development Countermeasures

Coastal port cluster can promote the development of regional economy and foreign trade,which plays an important role in supporting and stimulating regional economic development.North China is an important energy and raw material production base,but also a heavy chemical industry base.The Bohai Rim Port cluster plays an important strategic role.The "One Belt and One Road",Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration,Tianjin Free Trade Zone,and China-Korea FTA will all bring new development opportunities to the Bohai Rim.However,there are some problems in the Bohai Rim Port cluste.In this context,how to improve the overall competitiveness of the Bohai Rim Port Group and how to improve its overall competitiveness have been studied in this paper.First of all,this article summarizes the domestic and international research status of ports cluste and ports cluster ntegration,defines the concept of port cluster integration and throughput fluctuation,and introduces the seasonal adjustment method,X-12 ARIMA model,Hodrick-Prescott filter method and related measurement methods and indicators.Secondly,the development status of the Bohai Rim Port Group was introduced from the following five aspects.Then take corresponding methods and metrics to analyze the current situation of the Bohai Bay port group fluctuations and decompose the cargo throughput time series.Thirdly,a longitudinal comparison ond a horizontal comparison for seasonal fluctuations,irregular fluctuations,and periodic fluctuations in cargo throughput of the Bohai Rim Port Group was conducted.Analysing the causes of the three types of fluctuations and combining the results and causes of the comparisons have yielded meaningful results for the proposed development strategy of the Bohai Rim Port Group.Finally,based on the results of comparison of the fluctuation of cargo throughput of the Bohai Rim Port Group,combined with the development status of the Bohai Rim Port Group,the development countermeasures of the Bohai Rim Port Group are proposed.