Research On Passenger Demand Forecast Of A New Planning Route Xi’an-Macao For A Airline

The analysis and forecast of airline passenger demand is the foundation and basis of airline operation.Accurate demand forecasting can help airlines develop scientific business strategies.All along,the research on passenger demand of domestic airlines mainly focuses on the opened routes,there are relatively few researches on the new and planning routes,and there is a lack of quantitative analysis.Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of air passenger demand and the gravity model,Thesis analyzes the proposed route deeply and carries out quantitative research and forecast.The thesis firstly combs through the relevant research literature of airline passenger demand forecasting,studies various methods and achievements of passenger demand forecasting,analyzes and compares airline passenger demand and traffic volume,and defines passenger demand degree.On the basis of the previous research,the gravity model is introduced as the core method in thesis.Secondly,the thesis analyzes the influencing factors of airline passenger demand,focusing on the impact of economic situation,population and distance on airline passenger demand.On the basis of the traditional influencing factors,combined with the characteristics of the route,thesis introduces two influencing factors,flight years and ticket price,in order to construct the gravity model.After the model is successfully constructed,it is simplified to multivariate linear regression equation,and the predictive model expression is determined by SPSS statistical software.After the model is tested,the forecast of passenger demand for the new planning route is made.Finally,the forecast result of passenger demand is applied to the actual operation of the airline,the flight model and schedule are deduced.All in all,for the new planning route advance prediction can avoid the blindness of route development and operation,reduce operating costs and improve efficiency.The research in thesis is of great practical significance to airlines,whether to provide decision support or to improve economic returns.