Research On Investment Decision Of CCER Wind Power Project Based On Real Options

With the establishment of the nation' s carbon emissions trading system,China's voluntary emission reduction mechanism has also ushered in new opportunities for development.There has been an increase in the number of projects that have applied for voluntary emission reductions across the country,among which the number of wind power projects is the most prominent.Under the voluntary emission reduction mechanism,how to make scientific and rational investment decisions for wind power projects is an urgent problem to be solved.This paper studies this issue,builds a project evaluation model,and selects a CCER wind power project in Tianjin to apply it,which verifies the feasibility and scientificity of the model,and provides reasonable estimates for investors when making investment decisions for wind power CCER projects.Value methods,while promoting the development of voluntary emission reduction mechanisms in China.This article's research work altogether is divided into six chapters.Chapter One introduces the research background,the significance and the main contents and viewpoints of the research,and introduces the research route method,and puts forward the innovation point of this paper.Chapter Two explains the theoretical basis of the research in this paper,and expounds the research status of the real option theory and the CERs.Chapter Three expounds and analyzes the present situation of the development of the CCER project in China,introduces the specific contents of the voluntary emission reduction mechanism,and according to the project publicized by China voluntary emission reduction trading information platform,statistics and analyses the CCER project which has been filed,and explains the necessity of studying wind power CCER project.Secondly,based on the real option theory,the option characteristics of wind power generation CCER project are analyzed,because of the uncertainty of the transaction price fluctuation in the record process and the amount of emission reduction,so that it has the real option property.Chapter Four completes the main work of this article,constructs the value appraisal model for the Wind power Generation CCER project.Through the analysis of several traditional investment analysis methods and real option theory pricing model,this chapter first selects suitable for wind power CCER Project pricing method,followed by the traditional cash flow discount method and B-S option pricing model based on the construction of wind power CCER project valuation model.Chapter Five chooses a wind power generation CCER project in Tianjin as a case,applies the model constructed in this paper,verifies the feasibility of the model,and concludes that it provides a scientific and feasible evaluation basis for investors to invest in wind power CCER project.Chapter Six conclusions of this paper,and make suggestions.Through the research,this paper draws the following conclusions:Firstly,the evaluation of wind power CCER project in combination with real options can better reflect the real value of the project;Secondly,in the process of project value evaluation,it is found that the discounted cash flow method is used in combination with the BS option pricing model.The integrated approach,and assuming that CCER price fluctuations are consistent with random Brownian motion,the volatility parameter o is calculated using the set-valued iteration method,and can accurately measure the true value of the project;Finally,investors should fully consider when investing in wind power CCER projects.The probability of the project and project emission reduction being issued is the size of the model parameter ?.Based on this,the decision-making behavior of whether or not to invest is made.