Research On Value Assessment Model Of Incremental Distribution Network Investment Based On Real Options

With the development of China's economy and the increasing scale of interconnected power grids,people pay more and more attention to the reliability of distribution network and the rationality of economy.The release of the incremental distribution network is one of the key tasks of the electric reform.Its main purpose is to achieve mixed ownership of infrastructure construction to attract investment,thereby promoting economic growth,while improving the efficiency of power grid operation.Incremental distribution network income model and investment activities are different from traditional grid investment.On the one hand,the continuous development of energy Internet and integrated energy system,the income model of incremental distribution network is quite different from that of traditional grid.Incremental distribution network investment will not only be limited to the investment of distribution and substation equipment,but also involve investment in integrated energy services,microgrid and energy internet.On the other hand,the characteristics of larger initial investment and longer payback period will be further highlighted.The traditional investment evaluation methods are difficult to adapt to the investment value evaluation of incremental distribution network projects because of the characteristics of more influencing factors and greater volatility of income.Therefore,it is necessary to study the investment decision of incremental distribution network.Firstly,this paper analyses the investment environment of incremental distribution network,and focuses on the impact of transmission and distribution price reform.The profit distribution mode and the uncertainty of incremental return on investment are analyzed.Secondly,by introducing the real option theory and identifying the option characteristics of incremental distribution network,this paper analyzes the incremental distribution network investment activities under single option and compound option respectively.Then,based on B-S model and Geske model,an investment decision model of incremental distribution network is constructed.Thirdly,considering the causes of investment value fluctuation of incremental distribution network,a measurement model is built for the volatility of key parameters of real option model.Finally,an example is used to verify the validity of the model.In conclusion,based on the real option theory,this paper constructs an analysis method suitable for incremental distribution network investment decision-making,which can provide reference and reference for grid investment under the new situation.