Analysis On Investment Decision Of Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant On Real Options

In terms of the structure of energy consumption within the human society,it is in constant transformation.In this regard,although the traditional fuels containing oil,coal and natural gas are widely applied in various industries,the relevant pollution also brings considerable pressure for the environment.Currently,nuclear power is regarded as the new choice for various countries to realize sustainable development of electric power due to its features as environmental protection and economy,so there is rapid development for nuclear power all over the world.With the continuous enlargement of market for nuclear power,a batch of new technologies have emerged and been witnessed by people.The investment of nuclear power is endowed with the features as that of general power investment which are respectively large capital invested,long period of project construction,moreover,it also has its own unique feature of irreversibility.The relevant decision makers for nuclear power projects are supposed to carry out reasonable identification on the factors influencing the project values by taking enterprise values into consideration,which is within the background of reform for market-oriented electricity.Furthermore,it is also necessary to find out the best investment opportunities,so research on the optimal investment time for nuclear power station under uncertain conditions has great significance for project investors in the market-oriented background.After reviewing a lot of literature related to investment decision-making,it is found that real option method can be applied in the investment of nuclear power projects;by comparing with traditional valuation methods,it is of realistic significance to value nuclear power station projects by using the real option method under the effect of multiple uncertainties.This paper considers the uncertainties influencing the value of nuclear power stations such as grid purchase price,annual energy output,construction cost,fuel cost,maintenance cost,replacement cost,carbon emission permit and policies from the perspectives of cost and benefit by starting from the maximized value of nuclear power projects in the market-oriented environment and finally constructs a real option model only including uncertain technologies and uncertain income cash flow.It is expected to find an optimal investment opportunity in a scientific and reasonable way for nuclear power investors.At the end,it is found that the advance of nuclear power technology will not influence the rules of the optimal investment opportunity when the income conditions are determined.When the future income is not determined,the advance of technologies and uncertain income will determine the threshold value of optimal investment jointly.