Case Study On Risk Assessment Of One Urban Renewal Project Investment Decision Making Stage In Shanghai

Urban renewal refers to changing the performance and function of infrastructure and public facilities that not suitable for urban development by means of demolition,renovation and maintenance.Since the Reform and Opening-up,the process of urbanization in China has been continuously promoted.The contradiction between the restriction and development of resources,energy,space and environment has become increasingly prominent.Compared with the developed countries,the real estate in China lacks experience in risk identification of urban renewal project.And China's national conditions,socio-economic conditions and laws and regulations provide specificities requirements for urban renewal projects.Therefore,the establishment of urban renewal project risk assessment system in line with national conditions would contribute to ensure the smooth progress of urban renewal projects in China.This research is based on the Shanghai city renewal project,combined with the domestic and foreign city renewal and the theory of risk management based on Fuzzy AHP model,the establishment of Shanghai city renewal project investment decisionmaking stage risk identification and assessment system,and the application of risk identification and evaluation system in practical project.Firstly,the paper identify and arrange the risk factors that exist throughout the investment decision-making phase of Shanghai urban renewal projects by documents index and Delphi expert investigation method,and construct the three level hierarchy index system of target layer,standard layer and index layer.Secondly,in view of the specific project example,in order to avoid the unscientific distribution of the subjective weight value,the risk factors of the whole process of the project are screened according to the expert interview and questionnaire investigation method.In this process,the expert importance on different levels of risk indicators(weight)score is considered,and then get the risk index architecture project investment decision-making stage.Thirdly,the Cauchy distribution is used to construct the fuzzy membership function,and correction coefficient of the experts is put forward according to the expert's educational background,working years,project correlation degree and professional title,and the rationality of the survey results is ensured.Fourthly,using analytic hierarchy process to analyze the weight of risk factors,using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to determine the comprehensive risk value and classifying it,so as to determine the risk level of the project and key risk prevention and control factors,Reducing the probability of project risk and the degree of loss.Finally,the paper chose project A in Shanghai as an example to verify the feasibility of risk identification and evaluation system of Shanghai urban renewal project investment decision-making stage,and verifies the feasibility of the system.The evaluation system can effectively improve the investment decisionmaking level and risk prevention ability of the development enterprise in the urban renewal project,and reduce the probability and loss degree of the project risk.