| Energy is the indispensable factor to keep world,biosome and society functioning.Energy sources,as the carrier of energy,have a self-evident importance.Since the Industrial Revolution,society has experienced huge change and this means,to a great extent,unprecedented growth on the use of energy.However,huge consumption on energy sources changed the material construction of biosphere observably,which makes the changing speed of the environment exceeds the adapting speed of biosome and poses series environmental problems.As a late-coming huge country,China has especially series environmental problems.As a result of the limitation of resources and consumption expansion,our country's energy sources largely depend on importation,which may affects energy source safety seriously under the condition of the international environment changes.Meanwhile,the main type of energy sources China consumes is coal,and the consumption rate is more than 60%by 2014.However,coal is the most pollutant among the three main energy sources.As a result of the public ownership in China,coupled with the profound influence of the thinking on preparation for war and so on,some sectors of energy industry that is the national economic lifeline is under the price control since a long time.What impact will price changes of various energy sources cause on economy,and on energy sources consumption,carbon dioxide emission,and energy intensity?And what impact will that cause on energy consumption structure and industrial structure?What kind of change will the price control of the government result on the impact of energy price changes?Literatures on relations between energy source price changes and macro economy are reviewed first.Then how the data used in this paper are achieved and transferred into those that are applicable to models in this paper,the theoretical basis of the model used in this paper,and the specific instruction of the model,is introduced.Afterwards,the constructed model is used to study the impact of various energy sources on China's economy,and analysis and conclusion are made based on the data achieved.Finally,according to the conclusion,corresponding suggestions on policy are proposed.Data used in this paper is basically from input-output table of year 2012,and statistical yearbook and fiscal yearbook are applied as supplement.Social accounting matrix of 2012 was developed based on the data.According to the need,sectors were merged and divided and finally 32 sectors were formed,in which there were 8 energy industry sectors.And then the cross-Entropy method was used to level.When studying the impact of coal,oil and natural gas on the national economy,the situation of relevant secondary energy prices being subject to government control were also considered.When studying the effects,relatively micro ones were mainly aimed at outputs,prices,energy intensity,and carbon dioxide emissions of each production sector,while relatively macro ones were mainly aimed at CPI,actual and nominal GDP,residential welfare,and so on.Main conclusions include:(1)energy price change has a tightening effect on economy,but it is conducive to reducing energy consumption,improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon dioxide emissions.The effects are different among these energy sources.(2)Government regulation's influence is not significant for it's low influence on the regulated department's output in the given situation of this papper.(3)A change in certain kind of energy's price will change the consumption structure of the energy,and generally,the energy with lower price compared with those that can replace with each other in a certain high degree will be used more by other departments,and vice versa.(4)The increase of energy prices will help the industrial structure to adjust,relatively reducing the output value of high energy consumption enterprises,and relatively increasing the output value of low energy consumption enterprises.At the end of this paper,some policy suggestions were brought about based on these conclusions. |
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