Study On Socioeconomic Factors And Forecasting Methods Of Urban Underground Space Demand

In recent years,with the overall advance of urbanization,people,cars and other elements continue to gather in the city,many cities are facing land shortage,traffic congestion,deterioration of the ecological environment and a series of problems.Reasonable development and utilization of urban underground space(UUS)become a necessary way to solve these problems.To achieve the rational utilization of UUS,the key issue is how to deal with the possible uncertainties in the future,and make the scientific prediction of the function,distribution and amount of UUS with the development process of urbanization.Based on the quantitative research of UUS development and socio-economic data,this thesis reveals the intrinsic relationship between UUS demand and urban social and economic level,and establishes the mathematical relation model on the basis of the characteristic parameters of relevant elements,so as to receive the quantitative prediction of UUS demand.The research results can provide some reference for the planning management and construction investment of UUS.It is also of great practical significance to promote the intensive utilization of land resources and realize the comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable development of the city.The main contents and conclusions were summarized as follows:(1)This thesis starts from the analysis of current situation of UUS development at home and abroad.By collecting a large amount of UUS development data and the statistical analysis,the UUS development level is classified respectively by the UUS per capita index and per area index.Then the urban socio-economic characteristics under different stages of UUS development are compared and analyzed.The results show that the population density,the GDP per km2 and other indicators can be used as important indicators of UUS development stages.(2)Based on the correlation analysis of the UUS development index and the socio-economic indicators such as resident population density,GDP per area and total vehicle per capita in 19 typical cities in China,the relationship between UUS and socio-economy is studied.The results show that there is a high degree of linear correlation between UUS development intensity(UUS area per km2)and GDP per area,as well as resident population density.And there may be a strong correlation between UUS per capita and total vehicle per capita.(3)Shanghai was chosen as the research object to study the correlation between UUS index and socio-economic index in different time.It is found that there may be multiple linear relationship among the intensity of UUS development and population density,GDP per area and total vehicle amount per capita.Based on the multiple linear relationship,a regression model was established,and the model has carried on the preliminary inspection.(4)The main urban area of Nantong city was taken as an study example to carry on the study on prediction of UUS demand.Based on the study on relationship between demand intensity of UUS and population density,land price,land use function,location and rail transit.The multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method and ArcGIS technology are used to evaluate and subdivide the UUS demand intensity in the study area.The evaluation results can provide targeted suggestions for the development of UUS in Nantong City.(5)Based on the quantitative research results of UUS and socio-economic factors,this thesis proposes a demand forecasting method based on mathematical relation model,and uses several methods to calculate the total UUS demand in the main urban area of Nantong City,and the advantages and disadvantages of each method were conducted a comparative analysis.Finally,the reasonable total amount of UUS demand in the main urban area of Nantong City by 2020 is calculated which range from 14?16 million m2.