Research On The Forecasting Methods Of Hidden Quality Cost During Construction Of Architectural Engineering Project Based On Bayesian Network

Construction industry plays a more and more important role in the national economy.However,comparing with the foreign construction,China's construction industry profit level is still low for a long time,this situation will threat to the healthy development of construction industry in China.Investigate its reason,recessive quality cost in construction engineering project construction process is a major factor,if it is not the implementation of effective control,will appear "funnel".In the early stage of the construction project phases,if can carry on the scientific and reasonable forecast to the hidden quality cost,can realize the recessive the beforehand control of quality cost,managers can improve the hidden quality cost in construction adopts a comprehensive and dynamic management of pertinence and effectiveness.In this paper,first of all,the concept of recessive quality cost of construction project is defined,by looking at a large number of literature,listen to the opinions of relevant experts,using the method of fishbone diagram from personnel,materials,machinery,management,environment and other factors in six aspects identified 36 construction project the influence factors of the hidden quality cost.And from the perspective of the construction project cost components,combined with the concept of recessive quality of the construction project cost and its influence factors,identification of hidden quality cost in construction projects constitute content: artificial loss cost,material cost,machine use loss costs,field management,and other direct loss cost,capital cost and external loss cost.Second use explain structure model and the bayesian network construction project hidden quality cost prediction model is established,through causal reasoning,the model can predict the size of the hidden quality cost of construction project,phase at the early stage of the project managers can master the hidden quality cost in state;Through the model of the diagnosis reasoning can find out the key influence factors affecting the hidden quality cost,help managers targeted recessive quality cost control of construction project,realize to the beforehand control of the hidden quality cost.Finally build a bureau of the residential projects under construction,the maneuverability and rationality of the model is verified.Study shows that the recessive quality cost of construction project to conduct a comprehensive and reasonable prediction,can raise the cost of construction enterprise management level,is advantageous to the construction enterprise implement of fine management,enhance the core competitiveness of construction enterprise.The establishment of the prediction model,the quality of construction project not only perfected the recessive cost system of research,also is the research of other areas of the hidden quality cost to provide the reference and reference.