Evaluation Of Water Saving Development And Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Southern Xinjiang Based On SD Model

Southern Xinjiang is located in the inland arid region of northwestern China.Due to the scarce precipitation and strong evaporation,water resources have been in short supply for a long time,which has been the main bottleneck restricting local economic and social development.In order to meet the growing demand for water in the region,the over-exploitation of water resources has become the normal state of regional water resources utilization,which has brought about an extremely severe impact on the regional ecological environment.In this paper,based on the system dynamics simulation method,the dynamic model of water resources system in southern Xinjiang is constructed,and the impact of planting structure adjustment and water-saving technology development on the water use efficiency of the region in the past 15 years is quantitatively simulated.The research shows that the adjustment of planting structure has improved the water efficiency of regional planting industry and the whole economic system by 51%and 22%respectively;Technological progress has increased the comprehensive efficiency of regional water use by 70.4%,and opened up 36.7%of the development space for regional economic development under resource constraints.In addition,in order to research the impact of industrial structure changes on regional water use efficiency,the paper introduces the SDA structure decomposition model,and decomposes the scale effect,technical effect and structural effect of the increase of the total water use in Southern Xinjiang.The results show that the planting structure in southern Xinjiang is a reduction effect of the total water used in the region,which means,the shift in the focus of economic development from agriculture to the secondary and tertiary industries plays a significant positive role in improving the water use efficiency.According to the simulation of social and economic development in southern Xinjiang under the constraints of water resources,the total water consumption control will seriously affect the economic development level of southern Xinjiang.And it is very difficult to implement strict water consumption control in southern Xinjiang in the short term.