Spatial Structure Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Urban System In Shandong Province Based On GIS

At present,Shandong Province is listed as a comprehensive pilot area for the construction of new and old kinetic energy.The Shandong Provincial Government has determined the overall layout of the old and new kinetic energy conversions for building the “Top Ten” industry and accelerating the formation of “three cores leading,multi-point breakthrough,and integration and interaction”.These important industries and regional development policies will inevitably lead to the reconstruction of regional spatial structures.The spatial structure of urban systems is developing in a rational direction,which is conducive to regional economic and social sustainability.This paper studies the present situation and characteristics of spatial structure of urban system in Shandong Province from four aspects: regional spatial structure of urban system,population spatial structure,economic spatial structure and urban spatial interaction,using spatial autocorrelation analysis,rank-scale rule and gravity model based on GIS.Finally,the index system is established from the aspects of nature,economy,social security,transportation,government intervention and openness,and the influencing factors and mechanism of the evolution of urban spatial structure in Shandong Province are analyzed.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:1?Based on 2016 statistical data and nighttime light image,using the methods of barycenter analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis and gravity model,the present situation and characteristics of urban system spatial structure in Shandong Province are deeply analyzed from four aspects: regional spatial structure,population spatial structure,economic spatial structure and inter-city spatial connection.The results show that in terms of the regional spatial structure of the urban system,the TNL is random distribution in 2016,the TNL of each city is significantly higher than that of towns.In terms of population spatial structure,the primary city is not prominent,and urban development is not much different.In terms of economic spatial structure,GDP increases from west to east,while GDP in the north and south shows an inverted “U” shape.In terms of Urban spatial interaction,the central part of Shandong Province is closely linked,while the western part is relatively weak.2?By using the methods of barycenter analysis,urban primacy index and spatial autocorrelation,the statistical data and nighttime light image of 1996,2001,2006 and 2011 are analyzed,and the evolution law of spatial structure of Shandong urban system is studied based on the current situation of 2016.The results show that the barycenter of TNL and economy in Shandong Province is shifting to the east;the barycenter of urban population is shifting to the west,and is located in the southwest of GDP barycenter;the development of the primary city has not been prominent,and there is little difference in the speed of urban scale development;the intercity relationship is getting closer and closer.3?From the aspects of nature,economy,transportation and social security,this paper establishes an index system and analyses the correlation between the index system and the spatial structure of urban system in Shandong Province.The results show that the correlation between the comprehensive development level of cities in Shandong Province and the ratio of secondary and tertiary industries,average education years and gross import and export reaches 0.05 confidence level,which is significant.The correlation between the level of urban comprehensive development in Shandong Province and the average salary of employees,total retail sales of consumer goods,medical level index,insurance welfare expenses,public finance expenditure,gross fix investment and foreign investment reached 0.001 confidence level,which was highly correlated.It shows that these factors have great influence on the spatial structure of urban system in Shandong Province.4?Using the urban comprehensive development level index and index system to carry out spatial error model,spatial lag model and traditional least squares estimation,the results show that the spatial lag model has a good fitting degree;the comprehensive development level of urban system in Shandong Province is highly correlated with the ratio of secondary and tertiary industries,average wages of employees,total retail sales of consumer goods,average education years,medical level index,insurance welfare expenses,public financial expenditure,gross fixed investment and gross import and export.