Research On Forecasting Of Highway Tunnel Engineering Cost Index Based On Similar Engineering Discrimination

The highway engineering cost index is an indicator reflecting the degree of impact of cost changes in different periods,and is also the basis for project stakeholders to adjust the dynamic price difference of cost.In recent years,the role of highway engineering cost index in construction project cost management has been paid more and more attention.The provincial and municipal traffic construction authorities have adopted the preparation,prediction and release of highway engineering cost index in order to change the traditional static quota pricing model.As one of the important engineering categories of highway engineering,due to the concealment of its engineering,the large amount of cost,the multiple pricing,and the harshness of the construction environment,the engineering construction cost accuracy rate is low,and the bidding price is The actual estimated price deviation is serious.At present,many provinces have successively carried out research and release of highway engineering cost index.It is hoped that theoretical research and practice will be combined to improve the informationization level of highway engineering cost to make up for the shortcomings of the current pricing model.However,due to the lack of a unified highway engineering cost index compilation standard and highway tunnel construction cost index system,there are not many provinces that have comprehensively studied the highway tunnel construction cost index.Therefore,this paper decided to systematically study the forecasting of highway tunnel construction cost index,aiming at providing reference for government investment control,bidding quotation of bidders,cost control of owners,etc.,and also providing new research release for other types of highway engineering cost index.Ideas and methods.First,the meaning and role of the highway tunnel construction cost index are explained.Combined with the existing highway engineering cost index system,the advantages and disadvantages of the highway engineering cost index system are analyzed and the construction idea of the tunnel construction cost index system is presented.The highway tunnel construction cost index system is established.According to the different basis of compilation,the tunnel engineering comprehensive cost index is divided into comprehensive cost construction index and comprehensive bidding cost index,and the formation process of each specific cost index in each level of the system is elaborated.Then,in the formation process of various tunnel engineering cost indexes,the index characteristics are analyzed,and the difficulties and problems brought by the current cost index compilation are pointed out.The method of using the similar tunnel engineering discriminant to obtain the forecasting basic data indirectly is proposed.The meaning and content of the similar tunnel engineering and similarity factors studied in this paper are defined,and the similarity factors are analyzed and the corresponding quantitative indicators are determined to construct the discriminative model of highway similar tunnel engineering.Finally,after comparing the applicability,advantages and disadvantages of common forecasting methods,the GM(1,1)forecasting model is used to predict the tunnel engineering cost index;the stochastic oscillation characteristics of the tunnel engineering cost index are compared to the traditional GM(1,1)The prediction model is improved to obtain a random oscillation GM(1,1)prediction model.Using QH tunnel engineering as a practical case,the paper elaborates how to use the improved GM(1,1)model to predict the cost index of highway tunnel engineering,and obtains the forecast value of the cost index required for QH tunnel engineering.