Research On Global Energy Internet Evolution Process And Multi-system Interaction

Energy serves as the material support for the progress of social civilization.The unreasonable exploitation and utilization of fossil energy trigger various energy and environment problems.The substitution of electricity and clean energy becomes the primary coverage of energy transformation in the new era,which is a common objective of human society.The achievement of this transformation requires describing the evolution process of global energy internet systematically,cognizing the evolution rules of energy system properly and attaching importance to the coordinated development of energy,economy,and politics.The promotion of global energy interconnection(GEI),and the construction of globally interconnected new pattern are of equal importance.Global energy internet is the inevitable result of the non-equilibrium distribution of energy resources and the different levels of economic development.From oil and gas internet to global energy interconnection,the evolution process is affected by numerous factors.In this paper,the evolution of global energy internet in time and space is described reasonably,and its main macro-influence factors are analyzed.Meanwhile,the impact of international political events on energy price is studied,and the response delivery among energy,economy and politics systems is discussed.Then,on the base of these,a system dynamics model is established to describe the relationships among multiple systems,which is of great significance for formulating energy macro-development strategies and planning the contribution of GEIL Based on the above research contents,the specific work of this paper is as follows:Firstly,based on describing the geospatial distribution of global energy resources and population,the inevitability and necessity of global energy internet are clarified.From the aspects of energy types,energy forms and transmission carriers,the evolution process of global energy internet is reviewed.And the current global energy flow situation is described.Then,it is pointed out that the technical economy of clean energy power should be taken into account in the evolution of global energy internet towards cleanliness and electrification.And the evolution trend and development prospects of clean energy power generation costs are analyzed.Meanwhile,the macroscopic factors influencing the process are studied.On the basis of above work,combined with the status of global fossil energy flow and the planning of global energy interconnection,the future direction of global energy internet is given and the main global energy flow in different periods in the future are described,Secondly,energy price is an important factor affecting the evolution process of global energy internet.In order to study the impact of international political events on energy price,oil price is selected as a typical object.Based on a brief analysis of the historical data of oil price from 1968 to 2018,the impact and mechanism of international political events on energy price are summarized.International political events are defined and divided into two categories,namely producer-led and consumer-led.Then,according to the characteristics of international political events on energy price,the events are abstracted into intervention variables.Taking the Iraqi nvasion of Kuwait and the"9.11"attacks as the typical cases,the intervention ARIMA model is applied to quantify the impact of international political events on energy price.Finally,in order to study the interactions among electricity,energy,economy and politics in the evolution process of global energy internet,the basic index system for characterizing each system is proposed.Based on the responses among three systems,a basic analytical framework is proposed to study interactions among electricity-energy-economy-politics systems.On this basis,the dynamic process of electricity-energy systems evolution is described.Then,with system dynamics theory,a structural model is established to visually describe the responses among key indicators of systems.The quantitative relationships among variables are studied through applying the regression model of econometrics.So far,an electricity-energy-economy-politics model is established by applying system dynamics,and scenario simulation analysis is carried out.