Research On The Impact Of High Speed Railway Construction On Producer Services In Hubei Province

With the rapid economic development,the transportation is facing new changes.The 19th National Congress of Communist Party of China propose to strengthen the network of basic transportation.By the end of 2016,the operated length of High-Speed Railway(HSR)in China has exceeded 22000 km.In addition,producer services have become the main driver of economic development,which account for an ever-increasing proportion of China's GDP and reached 24.32%in 2015.The Outline of the 13th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development in Hubei Province emphasize that we need to speed-up the construction of transportation system and promote the development of producer services.The construction of HSR has not only improved the development environment of producer services in Hubei Province,but also accelerated the pace of its development.Therefore,it is very important to study the impact of HSR on the development of producer services in Hubei Province.Based on the theory of push-pull theory and interaction theory,this paper combine the development of HSR with producer services in Hubei Province to study the impact of HSR on the development of producer services,and the method used including multivariate linear regression analysis,double logarithmic model and gray forecast model.To be more specific,firstly,the Influencing factors of producer services on the background of HSR is analyzed with the multivariate linear regression model.The result show that three indicators have a significant impact on producer services in Hubei Province,which are the value-added of tertiary industry,the number of employed persons in productive services and the investment in fixed assets in productive services.Secondly,double logarithmic model was established to analyze the impact of passenger volume change on the producer services development in Hubei Province before the opening of HSR.Gray prediction model is used to forecast the passenger volume of the railway for the case without HSR from 2010 to 2015.Then,double logarithmic model is called to model the development of producer services in Hubei Province for the case without HSR from 2010 to 2015,Such development is compared with the development,i.e.,the development with HSR,to compute the of producer services in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2015.Finally,comparing the contribution of HSR to the producer services in Hubei province.There are 28.53%average contribution of HSR to producer services,which includes 7.72%on value-added of the tertiary industry,7.07%on the number of employed persons in produc tive servic es,11.06%on the investment in fixed assets in productive services and 2.68%on the others.Consequently,it is important to develop HSR,since it is able to promote the development of producer services,which can further to improve the transportation conditions,accelerating the industrial structure and speed-up urbanization.