Research On Contribution Of High Speed Railway To Regional Economy

High speed railway is one of the most important ways of people to travel,and it is also an important part of the transportation system.During the "14th five year plan",the development of high-speed railway is still a key issue of concern in all provinces and cities.Up to now,the mileage of Shandong Province high-speed railway has reached2110 km.After the 14th five year plan,the mileage of high-speed railway will double,and it is expected to reach 4400 km,so as to realize the city to connect high-speed railway.But at present,there are few research results on the impact of high-speed railway on regional economy in Shandong Province.Therefore,it has certain theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of high-speed railway on regional economy in Shandong Province.This paper first combs some domestic and foreign literature on the impact of high-speed railway on regional economic development,and introduces and summarizes the relevant concepts and theories,analyzes the interaction between high-speed railway and regional economy and the mechanism of high-speed railway on regional economic development.Because it is difficult to directly calculate the contribution of high-speed railway to regional economy,this paper uses the "whether there is a comparison method" to analyze.For this article,"there" high-speed railway refers to the actual changes in the regional economy of the high-speed railway construction,and "no high-speed railway" refers to the regional economy without the construction of high-speed railway.The actual situation of regional economic development after the opening of high-speed railway is known,but the regional economic situation cannot be directly obtained when there is no high-speed railway.Therefore,on the one hand,this paper constructs the measurement model of railway passenger volume affecting regional economy,on the other hand,uses the relevant prediction model to calculate the passenger transport capacity of the railway when the "no" high-speed railway is assumed.The passenger transport volume of the railway without high-speed railway is calculated into the established measurement model to get the regional economy of "no" high-speed railway,and then compares with the actual situation to obtain the contribution of high-speed railway to regional economy.In order to accurately calculate the passenger transport volume of the railway without high-speed railway,the first step is to construct the railway passenger volume measurement index system,which is the input information of the circular neural network and the combination model.Secondly,the paper combines the deep learning model cycle neural network(RNN),intelligent prediction model BP neural network and the traditional model grey forecasting model to construct GM RNN neural network model and GM BP neural network model.Through the comparison of model precision,the GM RNN neural network model with high precision is selected to calculate the passenger transport volume of railway when there is no high-speed railway.This paper selects the first high-speed railway Qingdao-Jinan High-Speed railway Dedicated Railway in Shandong Province as the research object,and takes this as an example to analyze the impact of the opening of high-speed railway on regional economy.The passenger transport volume of the railway in the "no" Qingdao-Jinan High-Speed railway Dedicated Railway in the cities along the line is calculated by using GM RNN neural network model.The GDP,the third industry GDP and innovation power of the "no" high-speed railway are obtained by the panel data model.The contribution of high-speed railway to the region is obtained by comparing with the actual GDP,the GDP of the tertiary industry and the innovation.The paper analyzes the empirical results,summarizes the whole text and puts forward policy suggestions.Through theoretical research,model construction and final empirical analysis,the paper concludes as follows:(1)Qingdao-Jinan High-Speed railway economic zone has a significant role in promoting the regional economy as a whole,deepening the relationship between regions,making the overall activities of regional economy more and more active.The initial stage of Qingdao-Jinan High-Speed railway special project is the most obvious stage to promote economic development,especially the cities with high economic development level;in the early stage of opening up,the GDP of Qingdao and Jinan increased by 36.2billion yuan and 24 billion yuan respectively,with a contribution of 2.24% and 2.06% to regional economy;however,compared with developed cities,the GDP growth of Weifang and Zibo is not large,and their contribution to regional economy is not significant The degree is only 1.29% and 1.13%.(2)The industrial structure of the cities along the line is obviously optimized by the Qingdao-Jinan High-Speed railway dedicated railway.The tertiary industries such as tourism,high-tech industries and other tertiary industries have developed rapidly,the proportion of the third industry GDP is rising.After the opening of the special passenger dedicated zone,the proportion of GDP of the secondary industry has been accelerated.At the same time,the opening of Qingdao-Jinan High-Speed railway dedicated project makes professional and technical talents from all walks of life gather along the line.Jinan and Qingdao,etc.,have a large number of high-tech enterprises,and strong funds,and the tendency of professional talents is more obvious.(3)The accessibility of cities along the line has been significantly improved.Qingdao,Jinan,Zibo and Weifang are four cities with good economic development in Shandong Province.The opening of Qingdao-Jinan High-Speed railway special project makes the connection between the four cities more closely and promotes the integrated development of regional economy.