| Under rapid urbanization,population growth land use change have brought a series of urban ecological security issues.Urban ecological security is the guarantee and prerequisite for the healthy and sustainable development of regions and cities.In recent years,coupled ecosystem services and ecological security have gradually become an important issue in regional ecological security research.The research framework based on the concepts and methods of ecosystem services has become an important means to solve the problem of urban ecological security.This paper takes the ecosystem services as the research perspective and selects the bay city Quanzhou as the research object,based on remote sensing data,land use data,meteorological site data,statistical data,and related planning data,using ecosystem service estimation,geographic simulations,and scenario analysis methods were used to estimate the four ecosystem service values,their trade-offs,coordination relationships,and supply-demand relationships in Quanzhou from 2005 to 2015,and analyzed their spatial-temporal evolution patterns and simulated land use under different scenarios.The situation further estimates the future ecosystem service function and its trade-off relationship between supply and demand,providing a reliable basis for safeguarding ecological security in Quanzhou and achieving sustainable development.The main findings are as follows:(I)Quanzhou’s water conservation services,soil conservation services,NPP,and food supply services4 all showed a downward trend between 2005 and 2015,Among them,the decline in soil conservation services was the largest,and the decline in NPP was the smallest From a spatial point of view,in addition to food supply services,the ecosystem service function in Quanzhou Bay of Quanzhou was significantly lower than that in the non-Bay Area,and the decline in the ecosystem service function in the Wanwan Bay was higher than in the non-Bay Area.(2)From 2005 to 2015,there was a synergistic relationship between water retention services,soil conservation services and NPP.Food supply services were weighed with water retention services,soil conservation services and NPP respectively.In addition,between 2005 and 2015,The synergy relationship between water conservation services and soil conservation services has been weakening,and the trade-off relationship between food supply services and water conservation services and NPP has intensified.The collaborative relationship between ecosystem services in the bay areas is weaker than in another areas,and the trade-off relationship is even stronger;(3)Under natural development scenarios,planning scenarios,and conservation scenarios,the area of cultivated land and construction land in Quanzhou will increase in 2030,forest land,grasslands,and water bodies will be reduced to varying degrees,fragmentation of land use will intensify,and water conservation services Soil conservation services,carbon sequestration services,and food supply services all experienced declines to varying degrees.Compared with 2015,water conservation services and land conservation services,water retention services,NPP,and soil conservation services and NPP were implemented under conservation scenarios and planning scenarios.The synergies have been enhanced and the trade-offs have been reduced;(4)The total supply capacity of ecosystem services in Quanzhou is greater than the total consumption demand,the overall supply-demand gap is gradually decreasing,and the overall balance between ecosystem service supply capacity and consumer demand is relatively healthy,The supply capacity of ecosystem services is the opposite of the supply capacity in spatial distribution.he supply capacity of the Bay Area is only about 50%of the non-Bay Area,and the consumption demand is 2.5 times that of the non-Bay Area.The Ring Bay Area has a negative value in terms of supply and demand. |
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