Study On The Project Risk Assessment Model Based On WINGS

Project risk assessment in project risk management has always been a multi-attribute decision-making problem favored by many scholars,because project risk assessment is a complex system engineering,and the rationality of risk assessment is related to the success of the whole project.However,project risk factors are numerous and jumbled,and the relationship between various factors is interwoven,and there is a certain relationship of mutual influence.Therefore,we need a scientific and effective decision-making tool to help us solve this series of problems,analyze the structural relationship of project risk factors,and make a correct evaluation of project risk.WINGS is an improved DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory)technique that takes into account the influence of the factors themselves,and is novel in that it incorporates the strength and influence of the system elements into a mathematical mechanism.WINGS technology can be used as a multi-attribute decision making method for evaluating alternatives,especially when the relationships between criteria are not negligible.Given WINGS 'outstanding strengths,this article dissects its major shortcomings and makes improvements to make it more scientific and effective.DEMATEL technique is an effective tool to analyze the influence relationship between system problem criteria in structural modeling and has been successfully applied in various fields of decision analysis in recent years.Such as marketing strategies,control systems,security issues,developing the capabilities of global managers and group decision making.It is combined with classical methods such as analytic hierarchy process(AHP),ISM and fuzzy set theory to make these traditional methods come alive.However,previous studies mainly focused on the application of DEMATEL's method in various fields or the combination of methods,ignoring the technical problems of the method itself.For example,DEMATEL uses an initial direct relation matrix to express the influence of various factors in the system.When forming the judgment matrix,experts often make mistakes in decision-making due to the limitation of their own knowledge and experience or strong subjectivity,so that the formed decision matrix cannot reflect the real influence relationship.On the other hand,in the most important to solve the total impact matrix calculation problems in the process of the formation of the total effect is based on the influence of transitivity,affected directly by the initial matrix square matrix of all power,then all of the sum matrix,and assuming infinite times the power of the matrix converges to zero,and the current study showed that the initial relation matrix of power may not converge to zero when time tends to infinity,so the total effect may not be convergence.In this paper,the two points are improved,combined with BP neural network to train the expert scoring process,so that the expert evaluation is more accurate,to overcome the decision-making matrix is not accurate defects;At the same time,the sufficient and necessary conditions for the convergence of the limit matrix are given by using the matrix theory,and a complex system is creatively divided into several subsystems for calculation,which ensures the rationality of the calculation method of the comprehensive influence matrix and makes it applicable to any situation.The improved method is used to put forward a risk assessment model based on cause and result,which are applicable to different situations.They are respectively applied to two practical case projects for risk assessment.The assessment results are in line with the reality and have certain rationality,which proves that the method proposed in this paper is feasible.