Research On Multi-attribute Decision-making Of Risk Events In Engineering Project Based On Prospect Theory

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,China's economy and science and technology have developed rapidly,and at the same time it has also promoted the construction and development of China's engineering projects.This means that higher requirements are placed on the quality of projects and construction technology.In recent years,frequent occurrence of risk events in engineering projects has seriously threatened human life and property safety,and at the same time it has also brought many negative impacts on society.Therefore,it is of great significance to improve the risk management capabilities of our country's engineering projects.Engineering projects risk event is a typical interval multi-attribute risk decision-making problem.The incident itself has strong uncertainty and complexity,and there are many influencing factors.Therefore,how to make effective decisions in an uncertain environment is a challenging issue.In order to solve the above problems,we need to discuss in two ways.First,the decision makers choose the best solution from many alternatives to deal with the status of current risk events in order to minimize the losses;secondly,how to dynamically adjust the risk event decision-making scheme according to the evolution of the risk event scenario to cope with the adverse effects of the risk event.How to solve the above two problems is the starting point and the end result of this study.This paper analyzes and summarizes the research results of domestic and foreign experts in risk decision-making.Based on this,this paper focuses on the risk management process of construction projects,and conducts in-depth research on the choices and dynamic adjustments of the decision-making plans for risk events of construction projects.The main research work includes:First,the attribute value and outcome of the project risk decision-making scheme is a multi-attribute risk decision-making problem in the form of interval numbers.Considering the influence of subjective factors such as decision makers' risk preference in the decision-making process,this paper establishes a risk decision model based on the perspective of prospect theory.Start of all,normalizes the attribute values of the decision-making scheme under different decision criteria and evolution states,and takes the positive and negative ideal points as the reference points of the decision makers,and calculates the value function value on this basis.Then,the interval probability of different evolution scenarios is transformed into point probability,and the above-mentioned point probability is brought into the risk probability weight function to calculate the probability weight;In the end,the size of the foreground value of the solution is calculated,and the scheme with a large foreground value is taken as the best solution.Second,for the dynamic adjustment of the decision-making scheme,this paper constructs a program adjustment model based on prospect theory and utility risk.Start of all,describes the problem of dynamic adjustment of the plan,and specifically analyzes the impact of adjustment criteria such as adjustment costs,adjustment losses,and disposal effects on program adjustment.Then,compare the value of each decision criterion attribute with the value of the dynamic reference point of the dynamic adjustment of the decision maker,the decision utility's perceived utility “profit and loss value” can be calculated.And,transform the interval probability of result scene into point probability,use Bayes formula to calculate correction probability,introduce utility risk function,calculate the utility risk value of each adjustment scheme,and use the scheme with the smallest utility risk value as the best adjustment scheme.Through the research of this paper,on the one hand,it has enriched the application of theory and methods in the field of multi-attribute risk decision-making to a certain extent;on the other hand,it can improve the risk management capabilities of China's engineering projects and promote the construction and development of China's engineering projects.This paper combines the decision-making problem of scaffolding collapse risk of a construction project,applies the multi-attribute risk decision-making model and risk decision-plan adjustment model to the decision-making process of the above-mentioned problems,and verifies the feasibility and rationality of the proposed method.