Study On Construction Period Risk Of Real Estate Cooperative Development Project

In recent years,due to various influences,the uncertainties of real estate market risks in China are increasing.In order to avoid certain risks and maximize the interests of all parties,the mode and quantity of real estate cooperative development projects are also increasing.In order to alleviate the financial pressure and pursue the goal of high profit,real estate enterprises take the "high turnover" of project construction as the main way.To a certain extent,risk management of time limit for a project can promote the operation of project "high turnover" mode,and it is also one of the key concerns of project managers.Because of the uncertainties of human and non-human factors,it is often difficult to achieve the ideal schedule of construction projects.This situation has a great impact on the smooth development of projects and the favorable economic benefit and social benefit.On the basis of searching a large number of related documents,it is found that there is a lack of methods for predicting delay in the risk management of cooperative development projects.This paper focuses on the exploration and analysis of the project duration risk method,and finds out a suitable research method for real estate cooperative development project duration risk and can reasonably quantify and predict the duration,so as to enrich the research results in this field.On the basis of summarizing and summarizing the research on the construction period risk of domestic and foreign engineering projects,this paper compares the advantages and disadvantages of different evaluation methods of construction period risk research.Selecting the method of social network analysis and Monte Carlo simulation method to construct the construction period risk model of real estate cooperative development project:Firstly,identify 7 participants and 79 construction period risk factors of real estate cooperative development project,through their social network analysis,calculate Out of 15 most influential key duration risks.Secondly,through the Monte Carlo simulation method,the case analysis is carried out,and 15 key risk factors are quantified,so that the probability of successful completion of the construction period and the 10 most important construction period risks are obtained.On the basis of the results,the author proposes measures to prevent the occurrence of delays in the construction of such projects.The research results show that:?The social network analysis method effectively considers the interaction between the construction period risks,and provides a basis for identifying the high impact period;? Monte Carlo simulation analysis effectively measures the chemical period,providing protection against delays in construction schedules;?The construction period risk model of real estate cooperative development project was constructed.The applicability and operability of the model were demonstrated by examples.