Study On The Risk-Control Model Of Real Estate Development Projects

As the real estate projects characterized with long duration and large investment ofresources,generally,the real estate projects are considered to be affected by many risk factorsduring their development and management.And it is very important for project managers toimplement risk control on the whole process of the real estate development projects.Thetraditional project risk control and risk management theory on the practice of solvingcomplex real estate development project’s risk control would show certain limitations. Theincreasing complexity of real estate development projects made the deeper study on newmethods of risk controlling and management was necessary.This paper identified and analyzed the risk factors of each stage of real estatedevelopment projects. and analysized the factors’controllable respectively. It tookinvestment profit margins of the real estate develepment project as aproject risk evaluationand control index. On the basis of the the evaluation index system of risk factors, it usedartificial neural networks simulation medthod to find out a kind of internal relationshipbetween the investment profit margin and its influencing factors.It assumed that theoccurence of project risk factors obey triangle probability distributions,and the triangledistribution parameters were given by knowlege of the experts.Furthermore, it explained thepremise assumptions and the evaluation index employed of risk control model building.Simultaneously, the risk response measures were given. Then this paper used the simulationof neural network model to forcast the return on investment. Based on this, this paperestablished a complete risk control model, and it stated the thoughts and procedural steps ofthe established model. According to the criterion of three sigma,the upper and lowercontrolling limit lines of risk were determined to prepare for comparison with the value ofrisk assessment. To be sure, the determination of control bechmark was based on statiscalanalysis of a large number of historical data. Because of the exact theoretical basis, themodel had a strong persuasive to implement the evaluation and control on the overall risk ofreal estate development project. In conclusion, this paper preceded a method that enabledrisk control of real estate development project.Finally, a specific example was adopted verify the builded model of risk control, Bysubstituting the specific value， it shown the operation process of the model， and it implemented management and control of risk in the case. Thus, it continued the risk level ofthe project and proved the rationality and validity of the model.