Research On Risk Management Of The Early Stage Of The Real Estate Project Based On Monte Carlo Simulation

As the current pillar industry of our country, the real estate development can largely affects the national economy. As a result, enough attention shall be paid to every section of the real estate development, especially the risk management in the early stage. The risk management covers many a section such as the quality, safety and investment sections, making it one of the top priorities in the whole process of real estate development. Being one important objective of the management, the risk management has always attracted much attention of the scholars and decision makers of the enterprises. In its practical application, a good risk management can not only save the financial investment, but also improve the properties of the products. Therefore, a good risk management can be beneficial to both the enterprise itself and the whole society.The main idea of the thesis is about the risk management in the early stage of the real estate development. In order to make the research valid and applicable, the thesis uses the Zhangjiawo project as an example. Based on a detailed description and summary of the general information of the Zhangjiawo project, the thesis identifies the risks in the early stage of the project from two aspects, and then uses sensitivity analysis, expert scoring method, Monte Carlo simulation and risk coordinate method to make a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the risks. At last, these risks are ranked according to their influence and chance of happening and corresponding solutions are given. During the process of giving solutions, with the variability of the risks and the principle of comprehensiveness, the thesis also gives the corresponding solutions to the risks with less chance of happening and lower importance to ensure that prevention measures are given to all the predicable risks, lowering the risks' chance of happening and the influence of the riks.