Analysis Of Power Demand For Industrial Park Based On System Dynamics And Its Forecast

The analysis and prediction of power demand in industrial park is a further deepening of power supply and demand management.Under the current power reform situation,the industrial park has become the focus of various work.For example,the reform of the incremental distribution network,the park as an independent entity to participate in the medium and long-term contract market,power demand side energy efficiency management,etc.,all these will undoubtedly have an impact on the selection of energy use modes in the park and even the adjustment of industrial structure,which makes the prediction work of traditional power demand more difficult.Under such conditions,it's important to know how to do a good job of power demand analysis and prediction when facing new challenges.First,considering that the power demand of industrial park is closely related to economic development,energy structure,and environmental requirements.So it constitutes a complex system for power demand analysis and prediction,which needs to be solved by system analysis theory.And system dynamics is a new theory developed on the basis of system theory,it adopts the flow graph method which can clearly see the relationship between the internal systems.It is not only suitable for large systems such as countries,provinces and cities,but also suitable for analysis and prediction of the power demand of the smaller granularity of the industrial park and other smaller system.Secondly,combining the classification of the industrial park and the life cycle theory of industries development,the National Industrial Park A is considered to be at the stage of mature term and it has been operating more than 30 years.With help of analyzing the economic structure,we found that these industries such as transportation industry,electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing industry and so on are acted as the leading industry of this industry park.By qualitative and quantitative analysis methods,the influencing factors affecting the power demand of industrial park are analyzed.For the impact variables that were initially selected,the associated data series from 2010 to 2017 were used,and the gray correlation degree was used for calculation.The factors that have a greater impact on the power demand of various industries are found out,as the analytical variables of the system dynamics model.In view of the current situation in the industrial park,the uncertainty of the impact of electric energy substitution policy on the power demand of industrial park is discussed and the electric energy substitution factor is derived.Finally,the medium and long-term power demand forecast model for the industrial park is established,including the forecasts of various industries,after passing the test,the power demand for the next five years is predicted.Considering that the park is under the new situation,there are uncertainties in the impact of various policies on the power demand of the park.According to the future situation of the energy substitution factor,the impact intensity is simulated and predicted.Analysis and comparison of forecast results are carried out.