| Since the advent of shared bicycles,Chinese investors have increased their appeal to shared bicycles,and more and more people are enjoying the benefits of shared bicycles.This reflects the heat of shared bicycles.The following phenomena,such as tidal distribution of shared bicycles in railway stations,reduction of car travel rate,increase of rail transit travel rate,and reduction of urban carbon emissions,show the effect of shared bicycles on urban traffic structure.Therefore,this paper is to explore the relationship between shared bicycle and other modes of transportation,and the specific effect of shared bicycle on urban traffic structure.First part,this paper describes the three stages of bicycle development,namely the private bicycle stage,the public bicycle stage and the shared bicycle stage.At the same time,it analyzes the characteristics of shared bicycles,as well as the difference between shared bicycles and private bicycles and public bicycles.Besides,it also analyzes the traffics functions of shared bicycles connecting to urban public transportation and promoting low-carbon urban transportation from the perspective of green travel.Finally,it describes the change of traffic mode and urban traffic structure caused by bicycle sharing.Secondly,this paper analyzes the process of urban residents' travel choices and studies the factors affecting travel choice from four aspects:economic and social environment,residents' travel characteristics,traffic mode attributes,and traveler's personal attributes.The analysis shows that travel experience has a very large impact on the choice of urban residents.And a trip of the residents will be used as an experience,and this travel experience will affect future travel choices.This paper explores the extent to which shared bicycles affect the choice of other modes of travel and the competitiveness of shared bicycles and other modes of transportation.It has been found that when a new mode of transportation occurs,it will inevitably affect other modes of transportation.The emergence of new modes of transportation makes the increase in passenger traffic in the original mode of transportation known as the trapping effect,making the reduction of passenger traffic in the original mode of transportation known as the deductive effect.Third part,Thirdly,this paper establishes a generalized cost model from the five aspects of travel economic expenses,travel time expenses,travel comfort costs,travel convenience costs and security,and gives a detailed calculation method for each part of the cost components.On this basis,according to NL theory,a nested Logit model was established,and a selection tree for private transportation and public transportation was constructed.Private transportation includes walking,bicycles and private cars;public transportation includes sharing bicycles,public buses and urban rail transit.The prediction formula of the sharing rate,the calibration of the parameters,the calculation method and the steps are given.Finally,the predicted share rate of walking,private bicycle,car,conventional bus and urban rail transit before the emergence of Shared bicycle is 11.15%,4.72%,46.13%,17.76%and 18.24%respectively,and 9.43%,3.99%,39.03%,15.16%and 25.50%respectively after the emergence of Shared bicycle,among which the share rate of shared bicycle is 6.88%.It is concluded that shared bicycles have a positive effect on the utilization rate of urban rail transit and are positively correlated.It is a competing relationship with walking,bicycles,and regular buses,and is negatively correlated.Shared bicycles inhibit car ownership by improving rail competitiveness.Therefore,sharing bicycles can transform the urban traffic structure to the public transport priority traffic structure required by densely populated cities to a certain extent;in addition,by changing the connection characteristics in the convenience.Comparing with the conventional bus,more people are willing to use shared bicycles to connect to urban rail transit. |
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