Research On Forecast And Evaluation Of Electric Energy Substitution In Terminal Energy Consumption Market Situation

As a major energy producer and consumer,the shortage of energy resources and serious environmental pollution pose a huge threat to China's economic development.The vigorous promotion of the policy of replacing oil with electricity and replacing coal with electricity can effectively alleviate the problem of tight energy supply in China,and at the same time improve resource utilization and reduce environmental problems.Accelerating the promotion of clean,efficient and convenient electrical energy is widely used by the whole society and is one of the ways to build a sustainable society.This paper studies the current situation of electric energy substitution development in various regions of China,and builds an energy consumption forecast and electric energy competitiveness evaluation model.Then taking Jilin Province as an example,studying its terminal energy consumption,which is of practical significance for optimizing energy consumption structure and increasing the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy.Firstly,this paper studies the research background and research significance of electric energy substitution policy,and introduces domestic and foreign research on electric energy substitution,energy consumption prediction method and electric energy substitution evaluation method.On this basis,the status quo of electric energy substitution development in the country and various regions is studied from the overall situation of electric energy substitution and policy.It can be seen that the national and regional electric energy substitution projects are in full swing,and have achieved phased results,but there is still a large amount of raw coal used as direct fuel,and China's electric energy replacement business still has a long way to go.Secondly,by comparing several energy consumption prediction methods,according to the characteristics of energy consumption system and the advantages of system power,this paper establishes a consumption prediction model based on system dynamics in the terminal energy market.The proportion based on electric energy consumption is one of the main factors directly reflecting the competitiveness of electric energy.And the terminal energy market competitiveness evaluation system based on subjective and objective weights is constructed.Finally,based on the above-mentioned energy consumption prediction model and competitive evaluation method,the energy consumption of Jilin Province is taken as an example to study its energy development.The article selects the energy consumption data of Jilin Province from 2001 to 2017 to forecast the future energy consumption trends.The results show that power consumption in Jilin Province will continue to grow in the future,and the potential for energy replacement is huge.Through the evaluation of the power competitiveness of Jilin Province,it can be seen that the development of local electric energy substitution policy is still not perfect,and it still needs to be further promoted,and some suggestions for its development form are given.