Assessment Of User Response Reliability And Power Supply Reliability

In recent years,with the development of science and technology,the living standards of people have been continuously improved.The demand for electricity has also increased year by year,especially during the peak period of electricity consumption.The distributed generation is connected in the power grid to power supply the load.The demand response policy is implemented to make the user change the original power usage habit.And then,the purpose of reducing the power supply burden and cutting peak fill valley is achieved.However,which way the user responds,the uncertainty generated in the response process,and the changes in the reliability assessment method of power system still need further research.In this paper,the response behavior model of consumer psychology are established.According to the consumer psychology response model,the two response reliability indicators,response degree and response expectation,are proposed.According to the probability model of the customer response,the risk of the customer response is analyzed.Based on the customer response uncertainty model,the customer response sensitivity is also analyzed.The results show that the probability distribution of the customer response is approximate to the trapezoid distribution.The sequence of customer response factors sensitivity coefficients is as follows: customer income,customer type and electrical equipment.Secondly,the reliability model of wind/solar/storage combined power supply system is established.By using the time series simulation method,the microgrid off-grid operation mode is simulated and the duration of the island operation is calculated.In this paper,three kinds of reliability evaluation schemes are designed.The failure mode effects analysis method and the non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method are used to calculate the reliability indexes of the distribution network under the three schemes.According to the calculation results,the influence of analytical analysis method and simulation method on the calculation results is compared.The influence of distributed generation to the distribution network reliability is analyzed.Finally,after classifying the load by power supply region,the load weight coefficient is established,which modifies the reliability index of the load point and system.The modified expected energy not supplied(EENS)is adopted as the objective function,and the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solving the optimal energy scheduling for improving the load reliability.Finally,the load reliability is calculated with a hybrid method.Using the IEEE-RBTS Bus 6 system as an example,the correctness and validity of the proposed method are verified as an effective way to improve load reliability.