Research On Construction Model And Policy Simulation Of New Energy Automobile Industry Development

With the gradual depletion of traditional non-renewable energy sources and the increasing pollution of air pollution,a new energy vehicle powered by clean and environmentally friendly energy has gradually entered the public's field of vision.It provides a new opportunity to protect humanity's future energy needs and solve environmental threats,as well as to achieve sustainable economic development.The experience of new energy vehicles shows that the government plays an indispensable role in the catch-up of the automotive industry in the late-developing countries.As an emerging industry,appropriate policy support will help promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry.There is so much practical significance for promoting the development of the new energy automobile industry to analyze the status quo of the new energy automobile industry and simulate the possible effects of different policy changes.The author firstly reviewed the research status of domestic and international new energy automobile industry policies and the application research of system dynamics in the field of new energy vehicles,and then explained the concept and industry scope of new energy vehicles.Drawing on the research results of Rothwell and Zegveld,the author divides the relevant policies of China's new energy automobile industry into supply,demand and environment.According to the characteristics of different policies,the supply and demand policies are classified as direct policies and environmental policies are classified as indirect policies.Then the author analyzes the production and sales of China's new energy vehicles and the level of infrastructure construction.Under the condition that the industrial policy affects the industrial development mechanism,the author proposes the modeling ideas of system dynamics,builds a new energy automobile industry model and extracts the four elements of R&D,consumption,cost and benefit,and quantitatively simulates the development process of China's new energy auto industry.Finally,the author analyzes the impact of direct policy,indirect policy and portfolio policy changes on enterprise innovation capability,new energy vehicle market share and total industry efficiency,and proposes corresponding countermeasures based on the perspective of government and enterprises.The research results show that:(1)Increasing government procurement can increase the market share and total industry benefits of new energy vehicles in a short period of time,but it is not conducive to the long-term development of the new energy vehicle industry.(2)Within a certain floating range,the tax exemption,government R&D,direct subsidy and charging pile growth rate will positively promote the new energy vehicle market and the total industry benefits.(3)Improving battery recycling subsidies,to a certain extent,can promote the market diffusion of new energy vehicles,but the simple battery subsidy incentive mechanism is not particularly obvious for the promotion of power battery recycling.(4)The dual changes in corporate R&D and tax rates have a significant impact on innovation capabilities.Corporate R&D is positively correlated with innovation performance,and tax rates are negatively correlated with innovation performance.(5)Carbon quota trading mechanism and government investment can not be used as an alternative policy to promote the development of new energy automobile industry.