Research On Credit Evaluation Of Listed Construction Enterprises Based On Financial And Non-financial Indicators

As important participants and builders in the process of national economic development,construction enterprises play an important role in increasing employment,promoting economic growth,and promote urbanization.However,there are still some problems in the development of the construction industry in China,such as the neglect of enterprise credit history,the falsification of financial data,the research on the credit evaluation index system is not perfect and so on.Based on this status,this paper takes 111 listed companies in the construction industry as the research object,and builds a model based on stochastic forest algorithm to evaluate the credit of construction enterprises.Firstly,this paper reviews domestic and foreign credit theory research,credit evaluation method research and enterprise credit evaluation index system research,analyzes the current status and background of enterprise credit evaluation in the construction industry,and finds the problems in the credit evaluation of construction market enterprises.Secondly,it compares existing research and the credit evaluation index system of construction market enterprises proposed by domestic and foreign financial institutions and the one from the representative cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta,combing and screening the important research indicators with high frequency.As the research on corporate credit evaluation is mainly to evaluate the repayment ability and repayment willingness of the enterprise,to some extent,the financial indicators of the enterprise reflect the repayment ability of the enterprise,and the non-financial indicators of the enterprise reflect the repayment willingness of the enterprise.Therefore,the credit evaluation index system of listed enterprises in construction industry with 17 financial indicators and 6 non-financial indicators are constructed preliminary.Then,based on the random forest algorithm,the OOB-error(Out-Of-Bag data error rate)is used as the standard to screen the important features of the index system.Finally,11 financial indicators and 3 non-financial indicators are used to construct the enterprise credit evaluation index system.The main results of the study are as follows,the indicators such as the net profit growth rate,accounts receivable turnover rate in the listed company credit evaluation system are more important.Whereas the negative information,winning information,and employees(builders quantity)in the Non-financial indicators are more important;the development capability and operational capability of listed companies have a greater impact on the results of corporate credit evaluation;In the model comparison and evaluation section,through the comparison of different indicator types,in the analysis of the importance of financial and non-financial indicators,the models based on financial and non-financial indicators are more accurate than the models that only contain financial indicators and only non-financial indicators.So banks,credit rating agencies and other parties should pay attention to the comprehensive consideration of financial and non-financial indicators in credit rating.At the same time,it is necessary to raise the level of attention to the three indicators of negative information,winning information and practitioners in the construction industry.Through the comparison of different evaluation methods,it is found that the RF(Random Forest)model has lower error rate than the SVM and CART models,and the RF is more accurate for enterprise credit evaluation and the model performance is better.Finally,focusing on the relevant subjects of credit evaluation of listed companies,this paper tries to put forward some practical suggestions from seven perspectives of the government,the securities regulators,the credit rating agencies,the commercial banks,the construction companies,the investors,and the researchers.That aims to comprehensively and scientifically improve the credit level of construction enterprises,enhance the degree of credit information disclosure of financial market enterprises,promote the sharing and integration of corporate credit information in the construction sector,improve the credit environment of the construction market and financial market,and jointly build a good business surroundings.