Research On Dynamic Travel Decision Of Multi-modal Transport

In recent years,with the rapid development of urbanization in China,large crowds of people move into cities,the scale of the city has been expanding.The home-work separation has become more and more obvious,and traffic travel in city has become more and more long-distance and diversified.The number of people traveling in multi-modal transport is increasing.It is of great significance to study the decision-making behavior of urban multi-modal traffic travel.It can effectively analyze the choice of travel mode and route for urban multi-modal traffic travelers and its influencing factors,predicting the traveler's travel decision behavior,promote the traveler's rational travel mode,and provide a basis for multi-modal traffic route search and network traffic allocation.To make the design of multi-modal traffic network more reasonable.The paper first analyzes the characteristics of various traffic modes in cities,and on this basis,the characteristics of different multi-modal transport are analysed.From the perspective of travelers,this paper analyses the psychological behavior of travelers choosing multi-modal transport based on the personal characteristics and travel demand of travelers.Starting from the travel demand,travel motivations and traveler's psychology,the influencing factors of multi-modal transport path selection are put forward,and then the behavior travelers' decision-making in dynamic multi-mode transport is analyzed.Through the questionnaire survey data,the basic attributes of multi-modal traffic trip are analyzed.The multi-mode transport is divided into three parts: arriving stage,riding stage and departing stage.The influencing factors of travel mode in the first two stages are analyzed,and the influencing factors sets of multi-mode transport are constructed and quantified,and the main factors affecting travel decision-making behavior are screened.The arrival distance,gender,the purpose of the trip,income and inhabiting conditions are the main factors affecting the travel mode in arriving stage;travel distance,travel time,travel mode in arriving stage,congestion degree and age are the main factors affecting the travel mode in riding stage.Based on the influencing factors,the C5.0 Decision Tree of multi-modal transport travel influencing factors combination is constructed.By comparing and analyzing the accuracy of the models through many experiments,three key parameters of the model: cost-sensitive learning algorithm,Boosting algorithm and pruning severity are optimized.The most important factors affecting the travel decision-making behavior are analyzed and the travel decision-making behavior rule sets of multi-mode transport are obtained.Finally,taking a certain area in Xi'an as an example,the actual public transportation line is used to construct the travel route network.According available routes,the C5.0 decision tree model is used.The results show that modes and routes of multi-mode transport that travels choicing are related to their personal attributes.Travelers with different attributes will choose fitting their own travel modes and routes.The decision tree model can be used to analyze the traveler's traveling mode and route.It can better describe the dynamic path decision-making behavior of travelers with different personal attributes.