Optimal Spinning Reserve Allocation Strategy Under Uncertainties And Contingencies

With the increasing integration of wind power into power system and requirements of system reliability in modern society,how to achieve the optimal spinning reserve allocation strategy is of vital significance for the reliability and economics of power systems.In this paper,considering forecasting uncertainties(including load forecasting uncertainty and wind power forecasting uncertainty),contingencies(including contingency on the failure of generators and transmission lines),a general dispatch model for expected total cost in electricity markets is established and its corresponding solution for optimal SR allocation strategy is proposed,which can well balance the reliability and economics of power systems.In this paper,a wind speed forecasting method is proposed based on the corrected ARIMA-GARCH model.Accordingly,the uncertainty of wind power forecasting error is analyzed in detail.Considering the uncertainties and the contingencies on the failure of generators and transmission lines,a comprehensive risk index is given.Then,a joint energy model is proposed by minimizing the expected total cost as the objective function.The influence of contingency on the failure of transmission lines is discussed by using the DC power flow method and compensation method.Furthermore,the Hessian matrix of the objective function of the proposed model is proved to be semi-definite.Therefore,the spinning reserve allocation problem is actually a convex programming problem with linear constraints.It can help quickly locate the global optimal solution,which makes it have a high application value in the power system planning and scheduling.At last,a test case based on PJM 5-bus system is presented to illustrate the convexity of the proposed model and the effectiveness of the proposed solution method.