Research On Ningxia Virtual Water Trade And Industrial Correlation Effect Based On Input-Output

The shortage of water resources is a rigid constraint for the sustainable development of China’s economy and society.Ningxia is one of the regions with extreme shortage of water resources in China.Alleviating the pressure of water resources shortage is an urgent problem in sustainable development.The emergence of "virtual water" has brought new solutions.In order to explore the relationship between virtual water trade and industrial structure,using the input-output table data of 2007,2012,and 2017.The water input-output method was used to calculate Ningxia’s agriculture,mining,manufacturing,production and supply,construction,transportation and other service industries.The characteristics of water consumption,the final consumption of virtual water,the amount of virtual water transfer between industries,the situation of virtual water import and export trade,and the driving factors of the change of the virtual water import and export trade of Ningxia are analyzed.The virtual water-industry system synergy model was further constructed to analyze the degree of collaboration between the virtual water system and industrial system in Ningxia.On this basis,the traditional correlation analysis method and the virtual elimination method were used to compare and analyze the industry correlation effects of 7 sectors,and finally identified Ningxia is a key industry sector that affects virtual water trade.The research results can provide references for the adjustment of regional industrial structure and the formulation of water resources management policies.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The research results of water consumption characteristics and driving factors of virtual water input and output show that:The water consumption coefficients of the 7 sectors were generally reduced,but their values were still relatively large;Virtual water consumption was not proportional to the economic benefits it produces;Virtual water net transfer volume,virtual water export volume and virtual water import volume all increased first and then decreased;Ningxia has gradually shifted from a virtual water net export region to a net import region.The factors that affect virtual water trade changed include intensity,scale,and structural effects.The intensity effect inhibits changed in virtual water trade,while the scale effect promoted,and the structural effect from inhibition to promotion.(2)The results of the study on the synergy of virtual water trade and industrial development show that from 2007 to 2017,the development of Ningxia’s virtual water system and the industrial system were not coordinated.(3)Research on the related effects of virtual aquaculture shows that:The sectors whose overall evaluation ranking was less than the total output ranking value are:mining,production and supply,and transportation,which should be regarded as key development sectors;In 2017,mining,manufacturing,production and supply,and other service industries are key industry sectors,which were in line with Ningxia’s economic development.