Study On Evaluating Eater Resources Allocation Based On The Balance Between Burden And Load

In recent years,with the development of Chinese social economy,the increase in population,the demand for water resources has gradually increased.With the river pollution,the situation of water shortage is severe,which will result in a series of ecological and environmental problems,and limit the development of industry and agriculture,and even result food security and water security issues.In order to realize the rational and efficient use of water resources and solve the problem of water safety,many scholars have carried out reasonable allocation research on water resources.However,due to the large number of water resources allocation schemes,how to choose the configuration scheme based on the balance between burden and load is a problem that should further research.So we have to research on water resources allocation evaluation,and clear the water load balance state of different configuration schemes,that will provide theoretical basis for water resources management.In the paper,the water resources allocation evaluation concept of water-oriented load balance is expounded firstly.According to the evaluation criteria,guiding ideology and construction principle of water resources allocation evaluation index system,19 evaluating index were selected which considerate four dimension of quantity-quality-domain-flow and covered four levels of water resources-society-economy-efficiency.Then the game theory is used to combine the AHP method with the Critic method to determine the comprehensive weight.The weighted DS evidence theory,the weighted rank sum ratio(RSR)method and the weighted European paste schedule are used to evaluate the different water resources allocation schemes in the Yellow River Basin.At the same time,we studied from the three perspectives of unit equilibrium,spatial equilibrium and intergenerational equilibrium,and comprehensively explored the degree of water load balance under different schemes in each evaluation unit.Finally,the optimal water allocation scheme and control measures were given.The main research results of this research are as follows:(1)In this study,the water resources allocation evaluation factors including: the layer of resource criteria: quantity(Average per capita water resources,Water production modules,Per capita water consumption,Development and utilization degree of surface water,Development and utilization degree of groundwater,and Satisfaction degree of ecological environment water),quality(The proportion of wastewater entering the river to total water,Water function area compliance rate),domain(water area ratio)and flow(water flow barrier rate and base flow index);the layer of social criteria: water shortage rate and water structure;the layer of economic criteria: the main project unilateral water benefit,the main project unilateral water investment and the unilateral water benefit growth rate;the layer of efficiency criteria: Coefficient of irrigation water effective utilization,Industrial water recycling rate,and Water loss rate.(2)According to the planning measures for water diversion and water saving in the Yellow River Basin,we set different schemes in 2020 and 2030,respectively,which were plan D for considering both water-saving and water-transfer measures,plan C considering only water saving measures,plan B considering only water transfer measures,and original plan A.Based on the weighted DS evidence theory,the weighted rank sum ratio and the weighted European closeness evaluation methods are used to evaluate the scheme,and the final results are given by the minority majority principle: in 2020 the scheme D which considering both water-saving and water-transfer are better than scheme C which only takes water-saving measures into account,in the yellow river basin.Therefore,we should pay attention to both water saving and transfer measures.But the measure we should focus on is tapping the water-saving potential,which can improve water use efficiency.In 2030,The evaluation results of plan D,considering both water-saving and water-transfer measures,are superior to those of plan C,which only considers water-saving measures,and superior to plan B,which only considers watertransferring measures.And it is obviously superior to the original plan A.So we should also vigorously promote the implementation of water conservation and water transfer measures.However the emphases of engineering construction vary in different areas.Qinghai Province,Gansu Province and Shandong Province should focus on speeding up the construction of water transfer projects and the role of the water-transfer project was brought into play strively.The remaining provinces should consider implementing water-saving to improve the comprehensive utilization of water resources.(3)In order to compare the unit equilibrium states of different schemes in the Yellow River Basin,the load balance factors were introduced.It can be seen that the load balance of the Yellow River Basin has increased year by year.In 2015,the water resources of the Yellow River Basin showed an overall overload situation,Shanxi Province and Henan Province were in serious overload condition;Gansu Province,Shaanxi Province and Shandong Province were in overload condition;Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region was in a state of critical overload;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region had some carrying capacity Qinghai Province has great carrying capacity.The water resources carrying capacity of different configuration schemes are different.The load balance degree of the Yellow River Basin in 2020 has increased,but it is still in an overload state.Qinghai Province,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Shanxi Province,and Henan Province have the greatest potential in scheme D which considers both water-saving and water-transfer.The remaining provinces have the greatest potential in scheme C which considers water-saving.In 2030,with the change in economy and population,the implementation of policies and the operation of projects,the balance of water resources in the Yellow River Basin,the water resource load balance has undergone major changes,and it is basically in a critical equilibrium state.Qinghai Province,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Shaanxi Province have the greatest carrying capacity based on the water-saving scheme C.The remaining provinces have the greatest potential for water transfer and saving.(4)In order to compare the spatial equilibrium state of each province in the Yellow River Basin,and understand the spatial coordination of the population,GDP and water load balance in different units,the Gini coefficient is used,the result shows that: In 2015 the impact from population and economic development to load balance were in a state of large deviation.The people in Gansu,Shaanxi,Shanxi,and Henan are main factors causing imbalance between population growth and water resources balance.The GDP in Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Shanxi and Henan.The combined impact of population and economic development is a large deviation from local load balance in 2020.The people in Gansu,Shaanxi,Shanxi,and Henan are the main factors affecting the imbalance between population growth and water resources balance.The GDP in Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Henan,and Shandong are main factors influencing the in consistency between GDP growth rate and water load balance.In 2030,the comprehensive impact from population and economic development to load balance were reasonable in scheme C and D.The other schemes are in a state of large deviation.The main factors that cause imbalance between population growth and the water resources balance are still in Gansu,Shaanxi,Shanxi,and Henan.The main factors that cause the imbalance between GDP growth rate and equilibrium are Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Shanxi,and Henan.(5)Compared of intergenerational coordination between population /GDP,and water load balance in the Yellow River Basin through trend analysis: the population-equilibrium Gini coefficient,the GDP-equilibrium Gini coefficient,and the integrated Gini coefficient descended.Indicating that the population growth and the development of social economy are matching the water resource state.