Study On The Influence Of Air Transport Industry Development On International Air Transport Policy

With the deepening of globalization,the demand for international air transport services as an accessory is also increased rapidly.China's air transport industry has unprecedented opportunities,however,it also facing multiple challenges such as severe trade deficit of international air transport service and fierce domestic competition from high-speed rail transportation.This paper attempts to scientifically analyze the impact of the development of air transport industry on international air transport policy from theoretical and practical perspective,so as to provide references for the formulation of future policies.First of all,according to the actual air transport industry,this paper builds a theoretical model based on the oligopoly market structure,using the Cournot model to derive that the openness of international air transport market is a monotonically increasing function of the degree of air transport industry development,namely the establishment of international air transport policy needs to consider the real condition of industrial development.The higher the level of industrial development,the greater the openness of the international air transport market is required to maximize the social welfare.Secondly,this paper establishes a method system to divide the development stage of the air transport industry.Using this method,the US air transport industry is divided into four stages,and the cut-off points are 1978,1991 and 2001.China's air transport industry is divided into three stages,the cut-off points are 1992 and 2005.After that,combing the characteristics of the international air transport policies of the two countries,it was concluded that the formulation of a country's international air transport policy is based on the actual development of its air transport industry,and it can be roughly judged that the higher the development degree of the domestic air transport industry,the more free the international air transport policy.Finally,two parts of empirical analysis are made to get the impact of the air transport industry development on international air transport policy making.First part is a multivariate linear regression analysis of the cross-section data worldwide.The general conclusion is the indicator of air transport industry development has a significant positive effect on the indicator of international air transport liberalization,no matter how the control variables change within the model.The second part is using the ARDL-ECM model to analysis the long-term relationship and short-term dynamic effect of China's 1960-2016 time series data,the conclusion is that China's air transport industry development have a negative impact on the international air transport policy in the short-term,but in the long run,it will have a significant positive impact,which is consistent with the general conclusion of first part,namely if the degree of air transport industry development is higher,the government will adopt a more liberal international air transport policy.The final conclusion of the paper is that the air transport industry development has a significant positive impact on the international air transport policy making,both from the perspective of theoretical and empirical analysis.That is to say,all countries will take into account the actual development of their own air transport industry when formulating international air transport liberalization policy,and China is no expectation.