Research On Demand Of Bridging Bus Under The Sudden Interruption Of Urban Rail Transit

Urban rail transit emergencies are characterized by randomness,great harm,and high urgency,and often lead to the impact of certain events within the scope of some urban rail transit station's high density passenger stagnation.In the conditions of urban rail transit network operation,this passenger flow will occur from the station along the downstream direction of the line or spread gradually through the transfer station to the road network in the other lines.From point to line,from line to network,the entire urban rail transit network service level will be affected to varying degrees.In order to minimize the impact of emergencies on the service level and operational safety of urban rail transit networks,it is necessary to organize a variety of resources quickly and evacuate a large number of stranded passengers in some affected stations effectively.It is necessary to operate a wide range of buses(hereinafter referred to as public transport)and it can also provide a means of providing backup and connection functions for urban rail transit systems.In this paper,the definition of bus bridging(hereafter referred to as bridging bus,public transport connection,public transport short barge or public transport connection)is defined as follows : In the case of long-term operation interruption in the part of the major emergency line in urban rail transit,the conventional bus is used to bridge the interruption zone,so as to provide alternative transport modes for urban rail transit passengers.This thesis combines theory with practice,firstly introduces and analyzes the current domestic and foreign situation about the evacuation and emergency bus bridge,the research status of passenger travel choice and mode of transportation division and railtransportation and short-term passenger flow forecast.Secondly,on the basis of summarizing and analyzing the strategy of conventional bus emergency interruption under the sudden interruption of urban rail transit,taking the operation interruption in the some sections of Shanghai Metro Line 9 for a long time as an example,the questionnaire is designed to carry on the track passenger SP survey to analyze the change of passenger turnover and influencing factors of other traffic modes such as bridging bus,conventional bus,taxi and shared bicycle under the interruption of rail transit at different times in different sections of rail transit station,the relationship between the various influencing factors and the choice of ways and the importance of influencing factors were discussed.To calibrate the multinomial Logit model of traffic mode based on the survey data during peak time and non-peak time.And use two kinds of state of the model to predict the peak and non peak periods of sharing rate of bridging bus under the sudden interruption.The transport demand model of bus bridging is established in the peak and no-peak periods,and the total OD between the two return stations in the break interval is predicted by exponential smoothing method in the time series algorithm.Finally eliminate the two different states of sudden interruption of the loss of passenger flow,and use the predicted peak and no-peak time of the bus bridging sharing rate,the total quantity of the bus bridging in the total amount of the two folding stations OD in the two states can be calculated.The results of this study can be divided into two types: bus bridging demand of peak time and no-peak period.The results of this study can provide the basis of passenger demand for bus transit transportation decision-making under the interruption of rail transit.