Research On The Risk Evaluation Of Steel Structure Construction Cost Based On Grey Theory

In recent years,with the renewal of China's architectural form and the growth of steel production,steel structure construction as an emerging form of construction has gradually become a “dark horse” in the construction field and received more and more attention,thanks to the advantages of its unique space utilization rate,short construction period,high level of industrialization,architectural modeling and other features.However,due to many departments being involved in steel structure engineering,the construction process is subject to change.The price of building materials is sensitive to government policies and market,and there are many cost risk factors in the construction process.Therefore,the research and evaluation of the risk factors of steel structure engineering cost is crucial to the whole project cost risk management work,and plays a key role in the early warning and control process of cost risk.In this paper,the Grey Comprehensive Evaluation is used to evaluate the risk of steel structure engineering cost.Firstly,it establishes a cost risk evaluation index system based on grey theory,judges the risk factors by combining expert experience,builds a comparison matrix by using the hierarchical analysis principle,calculates the weight based on the square root method,and conducts the consistency test.In addition,using the maximum index weight value as a reference,the Grey relational theory is applied to adjust the original weight,and to avoid the problem that the subjective judgment error leads to the incorrect evaluation result.Finally,the whitening weight function is built based on the existing information and the Grey clustering theory.With risk factors graded by the expert group,as well as the risk level of the project classified with the revised weight the whole project and all factors are evaluated comprehensively and systematically.From the perspective of the developers unit,this paper studies the risk factors during feasibility study,design bidding,construction and completion delivery,the four stages of in the life cycle of steel structure engineering construction,and establishes a comprehensive steel structure engineering cost risk assessment model.Using the above model for the case analysis of the forging plant of CRRC Dalian,the results show that: there is high cost risk in the forging plant engineering of CRRC Dalian.The analysis results align with the actual construction of the project.The Grey Comprehensive Evaluation can provide data support for the cost risk management of steel structure engineering.After theoretical analysis and case verification,it can be seen that,the Grey Comprehensive Evaluation converts qualitative analysis into quantitative analysis,thereof the weight calculated by this method is more objective and with more accurate calculation result.It has good applicability and feasibility to the cost risk evaluation of steel structure engineering,which is an efficient and scientific comprehensive evaluation method.