Research On Risk Coupling And Decoupling Control In Overseas High-speed Rail Investment Projects

Over the past five years,China's overseas investment in high-speed rail,as a leader in transportation infrastructure interconnection,has actively led the development of the Belt and Road,and has become a brand-new business card for China's foreign economic cooperation and cultural exchanges.Overseas investment in high-speed rail has also developed from the export of equipment and technology to the export of operation and maintenance management,and has stepped up efforts to invest in all areas of overseas high-speed rail.However,China's overseas investment in high-speed rail is facing many problems,such as large amount of funds,long construction period,tougher technical difficulties,complex environment of host country and lack of experience in overseas cooperation.Over the last 10 years,there are few successful cases of China's overseas investment in high-speed rail.On the one hand,as far as the overseas market environment is concerned,it will face the systemic risk caused by the low degree of market environment development;on the other hand,as far as the foreign-invested enterprises are concerned,they will face the non-systemic risk caused by the lack of overseas investment experience and the increase of subjective uncertainty.The dynamic and random changes of overseas market environment and foreign-invested enterprises also make these risk factors affecting of China's overseas investment in high-speed rail full of uncertainty and fuzziness,and further lead to the interaction,interconnection and intertwined coupling relationship between risks.Once the project system has a highly complex risk coupling state,the consequent risk events will take on ascend trend,which will cause huge economic and political losses to China's overseas invested enterprises in high-speed rail and the Belt and Road.Therefore,a correct understanding of the risk coupling mechanism of China's overseas investment in high-speed rail and the use of reasonable decoupling control have become a crucial step in the development of China's Going-Out strategies.Based on the principle of linking theory with practice,this paper aims at establishing a sound and reasonable risk coupling analysis framework and systematic prevention strategies for China's overseas investment in high-speed rai,carrying on the research with problem-oriented approach.Through the analysis of the coupling relationship between risk factors behind the failure of overseas investment in high-speed rail,we can grasp the regularity risk interaction.Starting from the statistical level and the case simulation level,this paper constructs a quantitative model to evaluate the risk coupling of overseas investment in high-speed rail.On this basis,it finally form the theoretical framework of risk control strategy of China's overseas investment in high-speed rail.The main contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly,the list of risk factors for China's overseas investment in high-speed rail is identified,combining case study method and literature mining method.Above all,from the point of view of risk chain,we use case studies to identify the risks.Then,through knowledge mining and inductive reasoning,we identify a large number of relevant risk factors,which can be used as amendments and supplements to the case study identification,to further improve the quality and efficiency of risk identification.Finally,we get the objective and reasonable risk list of China's overseas investment in high-speed rail.Secondly,it qualitatively analyses the risk coupling relationship of China's overseas investment in high-speed rail.This paper studies the non-linear coupling mechanism of risk factors,and qualitatively analyses the coupling relationship among the four risk factors of resources,capability,environment and industry.Finally,the coupling relationship and coupling process are systematically analyzed with method of system dynamics.,and is verified by practical cases.Thirdly,the risk coupling model of China's overseas investment in high-speed rail is constructed quantitatively.From the statistical level,the N-K model is used to calculate the coupling degree of the four risk factors in the risk events.From the case simulation level,combined with the case of Moscow-Kashan high-speed rail investment project,the coupling degree is measured by using the coupling degree model based on the reverse cloud theory.On this basis,the evolution trend of risk factors' coupling degree and the sensitivity of overall risk level are simulated by using the system dynamics model.Fourthly,the risk control strategy of China's overseas investment in high-speed rail is put forward.Combining the different states of coupling risks,the coupling risk factors are controlled pertinently to reduce the coupling degree from the perspective of pre-prevention,in-process control and post-rescue,thereby reducing the overall risk level,and providing theoretical guidance and reference for risk management of China's overseas investment in high-speed rail.From the perspective of theory and practice,this paper explores the coupling mechanism of China's overseas investment risk of high-speed rail,and puts forward corresponding decoupling control strategies.In theory,it can provide reference for the scientific,efficient and integrated risk management;in practice,it can help the government and enterprises solve a series of problems,so as to ensure the better development of China's overseas investment in high-speed rail.