Research On Analysis Of Traffic Demand Prediction For Tourism

With the development of China's economy,the development of tourism has entered the fast lane,and the amount of tourism travel continues to grow rapidly.The lag in the development of tourism transportation has become a barrier to restrict the rapid development of tourism in the western regions.Traffic demand forecasting is the core and foundation of traffic planning.Accurate and reliable traffic demand forecasting can provide data support and basis for traffic planning decision-making.How to predict tourism traffic volume efficiently and accurately is an urgent need for scientific and rational tourism traffic planning.Firstly,based on the survey of residents' travel and tourist travel in Guilin,the characteristics of residents' trips with rigid travelers and tourists' trips with flexible travelers are analyzed.The differences between the daily trips of permanent residents and tourists' trips are analyzed and found that tourists in the purpose of travel,travel modes,travel time,travel distribution and permanent residents are significantly different.Then,based on the characteristics of tourism travel,the clustering method of traffic cells is studied.According to the characteristics of tourism traffic,the principle of traffic cell division suitable for tourism traffic is summarized.The traditional urban traffic zones are merged by using the fuzzy clustering method and the fuzzy algorithm clusters the traffic cells so that the traffic cells after clustering can reduce the prediction workload and ensure the prediction accuracy.Then the tourism traffic demand forecasting methods have studied,by analyzing the main factors affecting the tourist traffic,such as scenic factors,tourists factors and traffic impedance factors,combined with the characteristics of tourism traffic,a basic framework of four-stage method for tourism traffic demand forecasting is established.Finally,the forecasting method is applied to Guilin tourism traffic planning to predict the situation.According to the distribution of tourism resources in Guilin,the tourism traffic zones in Guilin are clustered,and the tourism traffic demand in Guilin from 2020 to 2030 is predicted and analyzed.