Research On Assessment And Control Of Credit Risk Of Direct Power Users

The survival of power companies is impossible without the market.With the further reform of power market and the sharp decrease in the distribution amount of planned power,power generation enterprises can no longer rely on the distribution amount of electric grid corporations to generate power.They must go out and conduct more power transactions with users directly,especially direct power supply.Otherwise,survival is out of the question.Direct power supply transactionis a necessary and important stage of the electric power reform in China.The credit risk faced in direct power supply transactions is gradually exposed with the popularity and increase of direct power supply transactions.The company's own operating conditions and the economic changes in its industry have caused users to have electricity and payment defaults in direct power transactions.Although the power settlement between current power production corporations and users is through power trading center,direct settlement is probable along with the further reform in the power market.The study on credit risk of direct power supply users is related to the user selection,production quantity and efficiency,also called the power generation amount and unit utilization hours,as well as the production cost and profit of power generation enterprises.In this paper,analysis and research to the credit risk of direct power users in electric companies are conducted by using analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The judgment model for comprehensive credit of direct powerusers is designed with the verification for validity and consistency through LD group case analysis.Based on the comprehensive judgment of direct power users' credit,not only can electric corporations make preferential selection on customers,but also monitor enterprises through the performance of electricity contract and avoid the risk of loss.The conclusion shows that:(1)the risk of direct power supply users includes :the risk of electricity payment and power consumption default,causes of which are related to the management ability,profitability,debt paying ability,customer reputation,customer external environment and customer development prospect.(2)power generation enterprises can better assess the credit status of direct power supply users through the credit evaluation model,so that a basis can be provided for power user selection and risk control in the performance of contracts.(3)The measures to prevent credit risk of direct power users in electricity generation companies are as follows: first,evaluate and establish selection mechanism for direct power users through models;second,establish a direct power supply user reputation database to conduct risk warning and take corresponding risk control measures;third,enhance corporate credit risk management awareness and arrange full-time staff to manage;fourth,strengthen risk monitoring in the performance of contract,including the control of contract terms,risk management in contract performance,post-event risk handling and payment recovery system.In this paper,the credit risk in power supply transactions is studied from the side of electricity generation corporations.Foundation is laid for user selection of power generation enterprises through the establishment of evaluation model for direct power users.The evaluation model is of stronger applicability and operability but demands less on the accuracy of sample.At the same time,a credit risk evaluation model of power selling companies is designed according to the characteristics of power selling companies,which provides reference for other power generation companies and the enterprises that need to deal with power users and electricity sales companies.