Analysis On The Trade Potential Of China’s Electromechanical:Products Exported To Central And Eastern Europe

In recent years,along with the "Belt and Road Initiative" and the“16+1”framework for China-Central and Eastern Europe economic and trade cooperation,China and Central and Eastern European countries have maintained relatively stable trading partnerships for a long time.Through statistics on trade data in the past ten years,it can be found that China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products to Central and Eastern Europe account for about 70%of total exports,and its importance in the structure of China’s export commodities is very significant.Despite this,issues like China’s mechanical and electrical export products only have relatively limited technological content,the efficiency of customs clearance and the quality of port facilities in importing countries need to improve,the existence of technical barriers to trade also hinder the rapid development of export trade.In view of this,summarizing the main obstacles affecting the formation of trade efficiency in the past and exploring the development space and realization path of future trade potential have great research significance.Therefore,the main research contents of this paper are as follows:First of all,based on the research methods from domestic and foreign literature,through the latest trade data,it is found that China’s mechanical and electrical products have a relatively stable upward trend in the scale of exports to Central and Eastern Europe,from 2002 to 2017,the overall increase in exports exceeded 18 times.From the perspective of country structure and category structure,trade is mainly among the five countries of Poland,Czech Republic,Hungary,Slovakia and Romania(accounting for nearly 85%)and the two categories:electrical and electronic products,machinery and equipment(more than 72%),the concentration is very high.It can be seen from the calculation of the competitiveness and complementarity index that China has a relatively strong intra-regional competitive advantage and its degree has a certain upward trend,the trade complementarity is more significant,but its stability is lower.Secondly,based on the relevant trade theory and combining the current export status,this paper summarizes the main driving factors,constraints and effect uncertain factors affecting trade efficiency,and substitutes it into the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and uses multiple indicators.The calculation of the scale of trade potential of various countries shows that the country of trade efficiency value is quite different,and Poland,Czech Republic,Romania,Slovenia and Hungary are the top five countries with the largest trade potential.Finally,based on the conclusions of empirical analysis,this paper proposes specific policy recommendations on how to stimulate and realize the trade potential of China’s mechanical and electrical products to export to Central and Eastern Europe from the aspects of finance,logistics,customs,technology and diplomacy.