Study On The Export Efficiency And Potential Of Electromechanical Products From China To India

China and India are both emerging economies in Asia.Since 2002,the economic and trade between the two countries has been developing rapidly,and China’s export trade in mechanical and electrical products to India has continued to grow,with trade in mechanical and electrical products being particularly prominent.By 2021,China’s exports of electromechanical products to India will account for more than 60% of China’s total exports to India,and in 2020,the US Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy,which aims to contain China,will bring greater uncertainty to China-India economic and trade relations.Against this background,it is of great practical significance to study whether China can continue its trade advantage in electromechanical exports to India and whether there is room for further expansion of the scale of electromechanical exports to India.This paper attempts to answer this question by studying trade efficiency and trade potential.The article is based on UNCTAD database and China Statistical Yearbook 2002-2021 data on China-India electromechanical trade.The article firstly summarizes the history and development status of China’s electromechanical export trade to India,and conducts a comparative analysis of China-India electromechanical trade potential by calculating the trade competitiveness index and complementarity index of China’s complementarity trade with India and key competitor countries.Based on the data of the top 19 trading countries of China’s exports of electromechanical products during the period 2007-2019,the model parameters are fitted and regressed,and the trade efficiency and trade potential values of China’s exports of electromechanical products to India are measured by quantitative methods from two levels: aggregate and classification.Finally,based on the results of the trade index analysis and the analysis of factors affecting trade efficiency in the stochastic frontier model,corresponding suggestions are made.The study found that:(1)China’s total exports of electromechanical products to India have a clear growth trend and rising export status,and India is highly dependent on China’s electromechanical trade imports;(2)compared with competing countries Germany,South Korea,the United States and Singapore,China and India are less competitive and more complementary,and have a high potential for trade in electromechanical products;(3)The average trade efficiency of China’s exports of electromechanical products to India is 0.22,ranking low,with the lowest average trade efficiency of 0.09 for instruments and meters,and the highest average trade efficiency of 0.72 for transportation tools;(4)China’s trade potential for exports of complementarity products to India has only released 24.54% of the optimal theoretical trade volume,with 13.76% for metal products,20.86% for machinery and equipment,71.22% for transportation tools and 71.22%,and only 12.24% for instruments and meters.On the whole,China’s export trade of electromechanical products to India belongs to the type with great potential,and there is much room for trade expansion.According to the model regression results,it can be seen that bilateral political relations will have a certain influence on China’s export trade of electromechanical products,but the influence of this factor is not significant.China’s electromechanical trade exports are mainly influenced by six factors: whether to sign FTAs,technical barriers to trade,liner connection index,freedom of trade,political stability of importing countries and government efficiency.Policy recommendations:(1)encourage the continuous innovation and develo pment of electromechanical industry,optimize and adjust the export structure of electromechanical products to India,improve the export ratio of high-tech elect romechanical products to India,while balancing the overall trade surplus of Chi na-India trade and reducing the unfavorable factors of electromechanical product exports due to trade imbalance;(2)continuously improve the construction of tr ansport-related and other infrastructure levels on both sides,and continuously pr omote the enhancement of trade infrastructure facilitation on both sides(3)stren gthen civil contacts and actively promote the signing process of China-India FT A to further enhance the level of trade facilitation between China and India.