An Empirical Study On The Trade Potential Of Countries Along The China-Europe Express Line

Since the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward in 2013,the China-Europe Express has entered a stage of rapid development.International transportation routes have expanded rapidly.The China-Europe Express has gradually formed a scale,transporting goods to more than 100 cities in more than 20 countries overseas.In recent years,China-Europe express trains have shuttled back and forth between my country and European countries,shouldering the important task of connecting China and European countries in the trade of goods,and becoming an important bridge for deepening the development of China-EU bilateral economic and trade cooperation.Based on the general background of the China-Europe Railway Express,this paper uses this as a research perspective to select 17 countries along the China-Europe Railway Express as the sample,and use graphs to analyze the economic development levels of the sample countries along the China-Europe Railway Express and their total trade volume and trade with my country.The relationship between surplus and deficit was analyzed.Then,this article selects the economic and trade data indicators of the sample countries from 2006 to 2018,as well as the national population,the geographical distance between the two sides of the trade,and other humanistic indicators to construct a stochastic frontier gravity model and introduce trade inefficiencies,and use the stochastic frontier gravity model to explore this in depth.The factors influencing trade between 17 countries and China have been measured and the trade potential value of each country has been calculated.The empirical results show that all explanatory variables have a significant impact on the trade potential between China and the countries along the China-Europe Railway Express.After that,the DID model is used to estimate the effect of the China-Europe Express.The test results show that the opening of the China-Europe Express has a significant impact on the potential of the 17 countries along the route and China’s bilateral trade and China’s import trade potential with the countries along the route.Promoting role,and has no significant role in promoting export trade potential.Based on the above analysis results,this article finally proposes targeted suggestions on promoting trade development between my country and the countries along the China-Europe Railway Express,stimulating the trade potential between China and the countries along the China-Europe Railway Express,and optimizing the effects of the China-Europe Railway Express from four perspectives.